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Dr_Roboto
Oct 15, 2020 1:09 PM

S&P 500 (ES1) trend lines, channels, and fib levels 

E-mini S&P 500 FuturesCME

Description

Here is what I got for the S&P 500 (e-mini) this morning.

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Comments
cashmerehunter
for a beginner, this is extremely confusing.
Dr_Roboto
@cashmerehunter, My tech analysis (TA) is pretty in depth at times and yes it maybe more than a beginner can understand. I am not trying to predict what might happen next per se. I am just showing all the critical TA for others to use. You are free to use the info how you see fit and make your own predictions and trading decisions.

If you want a better understanding for what is in this chart, then here is a quick overview. Hope it helps.

1) Trend lines, trend lines, and more trend lines. Automated algorithms like to use linear predictions models when trading and trendlines are just that, and they exist at all different time scales. That can make things confusing when you have too many on a chart. There are support/resistance trend lines (angled not just horizontal like some people use) for the current daily up/down trend, ones for the month, year, and decade. Everyone of those can be used to determine the movement of the equity. You can see the orange line noted as 2009 trend line. The older but more "respected" trend lines will noticeably affect the price when the market is near them, act as major S/R.

2) Often you can group parallel trend lines into channels. Again algorithms love to use linear prediction and trading between 2 linear trend lines is crucial to all movement. In the chart a clear down channel was created by the ATH and the recent correction low. The S&P will want to stay in the channel until its correction is completed. Note how FOMO/MOMO pushed it out, but it did correct back in the channel formed from Sept 24th. Also note the 2009 trading channel.

3) Those trend lines often form your traditional rising/falling wedge patterns, pennant patterns, etc. Each smaller scale rally in the recent up trend is marked by a rising wedge. Once the wedge is broken, the S&P is in a pullback. Then it will establish a new rising wedge. You can see those over the last month or so.

4) Last but not least, in addition to linear projection the AI algorithms like to use Fibonacci (Fib) levels to measure up/down trend strength/peaks. These are very much rooted in Elliot Wave theory, which is way to complex to describe here. Try searching for elliottwave-forecast.com for Elliott Wave Theory : Rules, Guidelines and Basic Structures. Everything you need to know for quick reference is in that article. That is what the all the numbered lines are for. The counter wave rally is the blue levels and the corrective wave B measurement are the darker red levels on the right.
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