Shorter Timeframe Trends Battle the Longer Timeframe Trends
We snagged the 12hr Uptrend I'd said I believed we were getting, and then did reverse (so far) off that as predicted.
If you don't have time to watch the video, here are the trends;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3793 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3769 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3707 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High
3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High
4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High
12Hr - 3814 Uptrend (10/06/2022) Lower High
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
As we can see, the 30m and 1hr are showing an overall uptrend. However, everything below them, sans Weekly, are in a downtrend.
I still believe that overall we head back down to at least 3700ish, where we can try to collect the 4hr, or best case to 3650ish where we can get the 6hr, and then evaluate where things go from there.
If we can snag the 4hr and 6hr, and then we rally, I'll be all for that being the bottom of this downtrend for 2022. Perhaps we hit new lows in 2023, but I'll worry about that in 2023.
I will still be sitting out today. I don't trust this rally, but I also am having flashbacks of June/July when I attempted to trade into a bizarre rally using math and got burned pretty bad twice. While I recouped the two bad trades I made during that, I'd prefer to sit out while things are acting up and be ready to make a better entry when the signs truly come around, even if that takes me into next week.
Earnings;
I didn't run over Earnings today, they are the same I mentioned yesterday and are mostly irrelevant this week.
Economic Data;
I did check into Challenger Job Cuts, it does appear there was an increase in job cuts from last month to here, however last month was very low (4th lowest for the year), and I see very little market reaction on that data set. I was surprised at the increase in percentage, so I wanted to make sure I was reading it correctly, but yes, there was a dramatic increase in job cuts MoM and YoY, although it doesn't appear to be an aggressively high number overall when I looked at historical numbers.
My main focus for today will be Jobless Claims coming up at 8:30am EST. Last month was one of the lowest jobless claims to date, so it is expected to go up a tiny amount. A surprise to one side or the other may send the market into a tizzy for the day. I am more interested however in Payrolls tomorrow, because I think it will be a better measure of where inflation is heading going into October.
My Sentiment Continues to be;
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Bullish
Long Term - Bearish / Neutral
Trade Safely! Remember your risk management plan!
If you don't have time to watch the video, here are the trends;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3793 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3769 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3707 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High
3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High
4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High
12Hr - 3814 Uptrend (10/06/2022) Lower High
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
As we can see, the 30m and 1hr are showing an overall uptrend. However, everything below them, sans Weekly, are in a downtrend.
I still believe that overall we head back down to at least 3700ish, where we can try to collect the 4hr, or best case to 3650ish where we can get the 6hr, and then evaluate where things go from there.
If we can snag the 4hr and 6hr, and then we rally, I'll be all for that being the bottom of this downtrend for 2022. Perhaps we hit new lows in 2023, but I'll worry about that in 2023.
I will still be sitting out today. I don't trust this rally, but I also am having flashbacks of June/July when I attempted to trade into a bizarre rally using math and got burned pretty bad twice. While I recouped the two bad trades I made during that, I'd prefer to sit out while things are acting up and be ready to make a better entry when the signs truly come around, even if that takes me into next week.
Earnings;
I didn't run over Earnings today, they are the same I mentioned yesterday and are mostly irrelevant this week.
Economic Data;
I did check into Challenger Job Cuts, it does appear there was an increase in job cuts from last month to here, however last month was very low (4th lowest for the year), and I see very little market reaction on that data set. I was surprised at the increase in percentage, so I wanted to make sure I was reading it correctly, but yes, there was a dramatic increase in job cuts MoM and YoY, although it doesn't appear to be an aggressively high number overall when I looked at historical numbers.
My main focus for today will be Jobless Claims coming up at 8:30am EST. Last month was one of the lowest jobless claims to date, so it is expected to go up a tiny amount. A surprise to one side or the other may send the market into a tizzy for the day. I am more interested however in Payrolls tomorrow, because I think it will be a better measure of where inflation is heading going into October.
My Sentiment Continues to be;
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Bullish
Long Term - Bearish / Neutral
Trade Safely! Remember your risk management plan!
Comment:
The Jobless Claims is in, 219k. Slight surprise to the upside. I'd think the market will rally on that news initially.
Comment:
So, after the initial rally on that news, so far it appears people are realizing that while it was a surprise upside by a tiny bit, 219k jobless is really low, especially coming off an insanely low month (average last month and this month and suddenly this month isn't so high and that month isn't so low). That's how I see it anyways.
Here comes the open!
Here comes the open!
Comment:
Some significant volume kicking back in at the 10am, nearly higher than the opening volume. This could be that lower move.
I saw a few "Ideas" on here that said there was buying pressure from yesterday. Just to look at yesterday's movement in terms of price action only, there WAS buying pressure halfway through the day at that 3730ish area that took us higher. However, the LAST price action to come in was selling at 3820 to push us back down lower. Had those movements been reversed, then the final price action would have been buying pressure, but we actually ended with selling pressure, not buying pressure yesterday. Just on how that spinning top yesterday should have been looked at.
I saw a few "Ideas" on here that said there was buying pressure from yesterday. Just to look at yesterday's movement in terms of price action only, there WAS buying pressure halfway through the day at that 3730ish area that took us higher. However, the LAST price action to come in was selling at 3820 to push us back down lower. Had those movements been reversed, then the final price action would have been buying pressure, but we actually ended with selling pressure, not buying pressure yesterday. Just on how that spinning top yesterday should have been looked at.
Comment:
Looks like there could be an apex of a triangle coming to a head between the upward trend of the 1hr and the downward trend of the 12hr/Daily. An apex typically fails to show direction until it breaks through one way or the other, but shows the psychological beliefs of traders thinking the market is going lower battling against the traders who believe price is going higher. One tends to win out during this triangle apex developments, winning the majority of the sentiment.
Really fascinating to look at once you understand the reasoning behind their development.
Really fascinating to look at once you understand the reasoning behind their development.
Comment:
Ended with selling pressure just like yesterday. I was hoping this illogical move would fix itself by today, but looks like maybe tomorrow. Looking to see a decline overnight to a more normalized level like 3700, then evaluate based on the payroll and unemployment data tomorrow.
Comment:
Last comment on the market today. Can we just have a moment of respect for how many days have been 2mill + in a row? We are ALMOST at an entire month. Remember when I was complaining about that before?!
I wonder if capitulation is upon us.
I wonder if capitulation is upon us.
The heating and energy crisis of Europe is definitely a story in the early stages of the devastation that will come. My thoughts and well wishes to anyone who resides in Europe during this difficult time.