So in my last 2 main S&P futures charts from March 2021, I had indicated a price level of roughly 5,300 points by December 7th 2021, sadly, we only made it to 4,808 by January 4th 2022. ()
The good news is I believe the corrections I was expecting back then may not come (or just yet...) I guess I can’t say for sure with the fickle nature of all of this, but I have been looking for potential fractal ideas and here’s what I managed to come up with after a few weeks of trial and error while creating a new fibonacci layout for the current run.
First thing I think I can see is some (maybe) obvious regression trending, marked in the blue ascending trend lines, each line being its own channel within a major channel of a sort. That’s how I perceive it right now. The fibonacci in my March 2021 charts looked okay at the time but just seem wrong enough now in retrospect for me to come up with something different which I am testing here.
I am paying very little attention to the moving averages, but I have provided what I think will be the paths of 2 of the first visible MAs using curved trend lines, in a more transparent red-orange.
Lime green trend line is where I think absolute maximum level for that specific timeframe could be (5,320 points.) Magenta trend line is where I think absolute minimum possible could land during that timeframe as well, right above a fibonacci multiple 1.0 @ 4,293 points (4,337 points.)
I left boxes in place where I would expect reversals to at least start occurring after price ranges have been entered, but I’m still generalizing some ranges here. However, because this is a fractal idea, I’d like to consider alternations.
Peak alternation ideas are in dark red scribbles just right around the peaks of my bar pattern lines. Price action can probably be generalized so I have done so with teal/turquoise trend lines, and using my fibonacci levels, I was able to come up with another general alternation for where levels could really end opposed to what I would have believed before considering alternatives.
I have provided a ghost fibonacci in all green, it may need to be adjusted once we see if there is a peak in the ranges I expected, and as we work our way down if that part of the price action in the patterns do occur.
After December 2022, I seem to only expect major upwards movement, but if price drops much lower than expected, maybe below 4,127-4,293 points, new considerations will probably need to be made. As always, this could all just be wrong and I did all this work for nothing, but that’s okay. It's just a thought!
Previous charts I’ve built coming to these conclusions:
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