1 – The maximum this year is 2400 if SP500 manages to hug the speed limit until year end without breaching below the 400d ema.
2 – 2140/2170 is golden point end of January15/early March15 (it would be a no brainer short for a few percent be it bull or bear).
3 – As long as 2020 is defended (that s where I would put my stop), the golden point has good chances to be reached.
4 – As long as 1950 (yearly pivot) and 1850 (400d ema) retain, SP500 could be supported for further upside (I.e the rally is intact in big picture)
5 – I forecast the pivotal price action (the circle) to occur in April15.
6 – If there is a large correction this year, the time distance between top and bottom could be 3 months and the magnitude could be 20% (the bulk of it in the last 15days).
Technically: A large correction could easily fit in (100% up without a correction greater than 10%)– whether it will be triggered through key supports or not is yet unclear: trading step by step.
News Flow Deflation in Europe. ECB QE Pending. Better US data so far. Rates Hikes in the US later this year. Crude still to find a bottom. EURUSD to dive further. Should erode US earnings projections I would have thought. Valuations close to 2007 – Well priced – This does not provide a decisive conclusion either way.
Comments
jangseohee
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Measured move?
YaKa
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By essence: market are not measured... 2000% from 1974 to 2000....
I think it will correct but i will play it step by step...
Bearing a short position in equities whatever the price action is risky. It can wipe you down.
I believe sp500 will be at 10,000 in 2030/2040..
YaKa
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2000% over 25 years.
That is circa 12% per year compounded.
12% per year compounded is roughly what we have since 2010 (from top to top)
And: 2400 this year would be close to another 12% performance... In line to past bull markets.
Not saying it does it... respecting the fact that historically we are not out of bounce.
And money management wise, i realised it is easier to buy a 20% correction after it occured than time it (and trust me i did a few great calls in the past 5 years)
jangseohee
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true,
after Hanging Man in month of November, and another pseudo hanging man DOJI in Dec, it would be good if yet another DOJI happens for Jan candle.
finger cross
YaKa
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I think we trade between 2160 and 1980 until april15. Then: decision time.