BearVsBull

I SPY some OIL trades $ES1! $CL1!

As we all know, the ongoing war has really put a squeeze on our oil supply ($CL1!) and $SPY have been just hemorrhaging since the beginning of the year. Naturally I've taken to trade these two (or three using $ES1! just to put them both on futures level) inversely. We've had a solid run on $ES1! the last week and whether you think we are at bottom or not, it is still something to take interest in. All predictions below will be made on this chart unless specified!

Bull perspective - Key levels here based on the fib layout is upcoming level at 0.382 and as you can see on the VPVR, we have just broken up above a very heavy volume area. Now due to this chart being a comparison, what I can say is that this coming week, there is a chance we could start out red, since I do believe $ES1! looks ready for a slight pull back. $CL1! on the other hand has hit a support trendline and has held it well so I am thinking a small wave upside will occcur this week. On this chart, you can see the prediction I have drawn (I apologize for the sloppy drawing) and we could be seeing a cup and handle formation happening this week. If so, my next target would be $37.25, where 55ema seems to be headed towards and breaking above that would very well allow us to take to the 0.5 fib level at $39.00 which VPVR shows to have heavy volume within that area as well. The white and yellow flat levels are all the areas where we could encounter resistance (also works for target levels for day trades).

Now for the bearish side, we are in a bear market so until I see it breaking the current low, I don't personally plan on taking shorts since a reversal would bring volume to the upside so massive that losses would probably be emotionally traumatizing. Catching knifes isn't my thing and money is also made in the middle!

To put it simply, I don't think we are out of the woods. We are still within a bigger downtrend channel despite breaking out of a smaller one this past week. We can also sink back into it again. Inflation is still a big issue and until that is fixed, we can still very well have a massive selloff at any FOMC meeting if they hike rates even higher or if the economy has not improved with the moves they have made.

Thank you spending some time to read my little post here. Stay green Degens!
Comment: Forgot to mention that FOMC meetings can also play the upside and break us to the upside as well! The cards are in their hands! Trade safely!