ES! vs ESM contract; Trends divergence; Time for Patience
So I may stay out of the ES a bit more today. My ES! analysis says we are prime for a movement down, however, my ESM contract says that we are beginning to fail that down movement and could see a bit more upside. I don't like the divergence, and don't remember a time they were this bad, so I have browsed over to other areas to trade.
On the ESM it is clear that the 30m/1hr/2hr are at odds with the 3hr/4hr/6hr which have violated the 12hr.
When looking at the ES! overlay, we are in clear violation of the 6hr and that is likely why there is such a strong signal for us to come back down. Additionally the lower timeframes that could take us higher at overbought except for the 4hr which will likely hit here shortly and give us very little room for upward movement unless we jump from a 4hr to a 12hr uptrend.
So on that note, I am then short on the 6E at 1.0915, which is already looking strong this morning for a bit of a gain, and will potentially remain away from the ES for one more day unless something provides more indication on direction. The pitiful volume has me concerned over the last two days in addition to the diverging signals.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4015 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
1Hr - 4029 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 3956 Downtrend (3/24/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
A movement back down to neutral could be a good position to go Long to get back up to this 4030 level. However, I am likely to stay away from this move because I feel that the 3980-4020 level are no trade zones because of the constant indecisiveness of this range. If we get back down, I may go Long as we pass 4020 to see if I can capture upward movement to 4030 and beyond.
The Short Position;
I may go short at the end of the day today, depending on how things look. Otherwise, if we have a huge spike upward on no volume above 4042, and the micro trend momentum shows the upward move is failing, I will likely snag a short position that I will want to hold overnight and possibly into Friday.
Economic Data;
Nothing major today. I don't see Pending Home Sales or Crude Oil Inventories having a major impact on price or volume unless there is some major surprise to one side or the other that bleeds into further macroeconomics.
My sentiment is;
Neutral.... Neutral AF
Safe trading! Remember your risk management plan!
On the ESM it is clear that the 30m/1hr/2hr are at odds with the 3hr/4hr/6hr which have violated the 12hr.
When looking at the ES! overlay, we are in clear violation of the 6hr and that is likely why there is such a strong signal for us to come back down. Additionally the lower timeframes that could take us higher at overbought except for the 4hr which will likely hit here shortly and give us very little room for upward movement unless we jump from a 4hr to a 12hr uptrend.
So on that note, I am then short on the 6E at 1.0915, which is already looking strong this morning for a bit of a gain, and will potentially remain away from the ES for one more day unless something provides more indication on direction. The pitiful volume has me concerned over the last two days in addition to the diverging signals.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4015 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
1Hr - 4029 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 3956 Downtrend (3/24/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
A movement back down to neutral could be a good position to go Long to get back up to this 4030 level. However, I am likely to stay away from this move because I feel that the 3980-4020 level are no trade zones because of the constant indecisiveness of this range. If we get back down, I may go Long as we pass 4020 to see if I can capture upward movement to 4030 and beyond.
The Short Position;
I may go short at the end of the day today, depending on how things look. Otherwise, if we have a huge spike upward on no volume above 4042, and the micro trend momentum shows the upward move is failing, I will likely snag a short position that I will want to hold overnight and possibly into Friday.
Economic Data;
Nothing major today. I don't see Pending Home Sales or Crude Oil Inventories having a major impact on price or volume unless there is some major surprise to one side or the other that bleeds into further macroeconomics.
My sentiment is;
Neutral.... Neutral AF
Safe trading! Remember your risk management plan!
It is a one sided market with the bears asleep this time and the bulls just trading amongst themselves. ESM contract continues to signal that the relief rally could attempt to run a bit higher, before it falters. I'll be interested to see where today closes at.
Made a few hundred on my 6E short, was hoping for more of a movement down today than what we got, not sure I want to hold it past this initial down signal if this down signal showed zero follow through.