The S&P 500 Continues To Replicate 2008! (ES)
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on the S&P 500, via the E-Mini futures contract. Let's get right to it!
In front of you I have two charts. On the right, is the current weekly S&P chart. On the left, I have the same chart, but looking at the fall during The Great Recession. If you have seen my previous analyses comparing today's market condition to the market during 2008, you know that I have exposed undeniable fractal similarities in the two markets. Today, we're going to assess how things have been progressing, since the last comparative analysis.
As you can see on the current chart, after the head and shoulders broke down, we touched the bottom of the new downtrend channel (in blue.) That was the deep selloff that we had in the market during late December. Since then, we have rallied powerfully off of the bottom of the downtrend channel, exactly as we saw in 2008. However, things are slightly different today. We can see on the 2008 chart that the S&P rallied off of the bottom of the channel, but never really made it to the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. That is a slight contrast to today's market, which has surpassed the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, but has found resistance at the 50 EMA (in orange.) As I said, this is slightly different than what was seen in 2008, but the general pattern remains the same.
From here, if the pattern is to maintain a close symmetry, we should see a breakdown below the neckline. That would be an ideal price movement for the market to trade mostly in sync with the movement of 2008. Additionally, that would be a generally bearish price movement. Confirming the 50 EMA as resistance, as well as failing to hold the head and shoulders neckline as support, would basically be two major consecutive failures after a powerful rally.
I do believe that the market will continue to slide, even if we rally up to the top of the downtrend channel first. I believe that the top is in for the market, and we are in the process of entering a new bear market. A fall from here, would be a remarkable synchronicity with the price action of 2008, and an additional evidence of the fractal repetition. With that said, I have arrows on the chart to show what the S&P could do, if it continues to replicate the price movement of 2008. In such as scenario, we could see the S&P at about 1234 within 18 months.
In the short term, if the neckline of the head and shoulders is held, we could see another test of the 50 EMA. If that is surpassed, the top of the downtrend channel would be a wall for the rally. That would be a stark deviation from the price action of 2008,a
Be smart. Be nimble. Good luck trading everyone!
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
In front of you I have two charts. On the right, is the current weekly S&P chart. On the left, I have the same chart, but looking at the fall during The Great Recession. If you have seen my previous analyses comparing today's market condition to the market during 2008, you know that I have exposed undeniable fractal similarities in the two markets. Today, we're going to assess how things have been progressing, since the last comparative analysis.
As you can see on the current chart, after the head and shoulders broke down, we touched the bottom of the new downtrend channel (in blue.) That was the deep selloff that we had in the market during late December. Since then, we have rallied powerfully off of the bottom of the downtrend channel, exactly as we saw in 2008. However, things are slightly different today. We can see on the 2008 chart that the S&P rallied off of the bottom of the channel, but never really made it to the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. That is a slight contrast to today's market, which has surpassed the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, but has found resistance at the 50 EMA (in orange.) As I said, this is slightly different than what was seen in 2008, but the general pattern remains the same.
From here, if the pattern is to maintain a close symmetry, we should see a breakdown below the neckline. That would be an ideal price movement for the market to trade mostly in sync with the movement of 2008. Additionally, that would be a generally bearish price movement. Confirming the 50 EMA as resistance, as well as failing to hold the head and shoulders neckline as support, would basically be two major consecutive failures after a powerful rally.
I do believe that the market will continue to slide, even if we rally up to the top of the downtrend channel first. I believe that the top is in for the market, and we are in the process of entering a new bear market. A fall from here, would be a remarkable synchronicity with the price action of 2008, and an additional evidence of the fractal repetition. With that said, I have arrows on the chart to show what the S&P could do, if it continues to replicate the price movement of 2008. In such as scenario, we could see the S&P at about 1234 within 18 months.
In the short term, if the neckline of the head and shoulders is held, we could see another test of the 50 EMA. If that is surpassed, the top of the downtrend channel would be a wall for the rally. That would be a stark deviation from the price action of 2008,a
Be smart. Be nimble. Good luck trading everyone!
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Comment:
Sorry, I meant on the left is the current chart, and the right is the 2008 chart.