ES! vs ESM contract trends differ; Patience is paramount again
I wanna make some breakfast so I'll keep the write up short. I'm out of the market at the moment, and my overall sentiment is very neutral. The ES! contract overaly has a bit of room for us to head further south, however the ESM contract has that anything towards 3900 is going to come back up. I'll be watching for the potential of both. Overall the market sentiment is more Bullish than Bearish, but there is enough doom and gloom to break that mental barrier at any moment.
The trends into today (On the ESM);
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3983 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 3963 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 3949 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Lower Low*
3Hr - 4047* Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4047 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The * signifies the discrepancies between the ES! and ESM. We are in a Higher Low for the 2hr on the ES!, we just got a new lower low on the 3hr in the ES!, and we are currently in an uptrend on the 4hr on the ES!. Currently I'm still mostly following the ESM specifically, because the price doesn't have the gap to throw off the math and analysis.
The Long Position;
If we get low towards 3900 and I don't see a meltdown occurring, I'll be looking for a nice Long position. While investors are dumping financial stocks, they are picking up in tech stocks.
The Short Position;
I'll be looking for any indication that the general gloom of the market is taking over, and we are heading back down into 3800 territory, or a good spot to grab a short to head down towards low 3900s again to prepare for a Long Position swap.
Economic Data;
There is no impactful data today. Legarde speaks twice today and once tomorrow, so I'd watch for how that impacts things. Wednesday is Fed Day, so I expect that is where most of the focus will be on.
My sentiment;
I'm very neutral across the board at the moment. Maybe I'll have a different feel as things go. These are those moments where patience is key. If you followed along, you're aware I made close to $25,000 last week, so there is ZERO reason for me to rush into a position to try and make some money this week.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
The trends into today (On the ESM);
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3983 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 3963 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 3949 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Lower Low*
3Hr - 4047* Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4047 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The * signifies the discrepancies between the ES! and ESM. We are in a Higher Low for the 2hr on the ES!, we just got a new lower low on the 3hr in the ES!, and we are currently in an uptrend on the 4hr on the ES!. Currently I'm still mostly following the ESM specifically, because the price doesn't have the gap to throw off the math and analysis.
The Long Position;
If we get low towards 3900 and I don't see a meltdown occurring, I'll be looking for a nice Long position. While investors are dumping financial stocks, they are picking up in tech stocks.
The Short Position;
I'll be looking for any indication that the general gloom of the market is taking over, and we are heading back down into 3800 territory, or a good spot to grab a short to head down towards low 3900s again to prepare for a Long Position swap.
Economic Data;
There is no impactful data today. Legarde speaks twice today and once tomorrow, so I'd watch for how that impacts things. Wednesday is Fed Day, so I expect that is where most of the focus will be on.
My sentiment;
I'm very neutral across the board at the moment. Maybe I'll have a different feel as things go. These are those moments where patience is key. If you followed along, you're aware I made close to $25,000 last week, so there is ZERO reason for me to rush into a position to try and make some money this week.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
Comment:
I might short the 6E, just FYI if anyone is interested.
Comment:
I'm short 3984... not sure it'll pull back right away, could get stopped out and have to decide to go in again.
Comment:
Profit stopped for lunch money. I'm up $150 on the 6E though
Comment:
Bleh, tried to go short at 3989 but it didn't trigger on any of the times it hit up there.
Comment:
Well, clearly I played it a bit to cautious today. That was the move I was waiting for. Not sure I'd take it much past 59 had I gotten it ($1500). Waiting to see if things look like it could take a much lower move or not, or I might sit out today. Disapointing for sure.
Comment:
Well, not much going for me today. My one move was to short that 3980+ into the 3950s level. I definitely got too caught up in trying to get 3989, and once that move didn't hold, even though we came back up, I chose to stay out for the day. I think my 6E move is just floating between $50-%150 also... so, more or less a L on the day =\
Such is life sometimes.
Such is life sometimes.