So I just picked previous blow off tops from the last two years:
- 5 of these blow off tops correct around 8%-12% and held the 200 MA: 3 of those touched the moving average and bounced. 2 of them did not even touched the MA.
- 2 of them corrected more than 20% and lost the MA.
Therefore: - There is high probability of a 2%-3% correction at least (all the previous corrections were 8% + corrections) - There is a medium probability of a 5%-6% more (3 touched the MA several times and bounced). - There is a low probability of having a 20%+ correction (only 2 lost the 200 day MA).
From a macro perspective the most concerning thing is rising yields in the long term interest rates which are not being controlled by the Fed, so I think we will have more pain and visit the 200 MA to test the upward trend and find support, which I think we will find given all the stimulus and the economic reopening.