Continuation of Weekly Analysis | Pre-Wednesday Data Bomb
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OVERALL BIAS: BEARISH INTO WEDNESDAY (UNCHANGED)
Monday validated the volatility thesis but not the directional conviction. The 76-point intraday range (6,924 to 7,000) showed both sides getting tested. Wednesday's NFP + CPI simultaneous release remains THE event. Light positioning today.
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1. WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED MONDAY
Monday's Session Data (Verified)
- Open: 6,935.50 - Gap DOWN 51 pts from Friday close (6,986)
- High: 7,000.50 - Tested Y-VAH / R2 Psychological Level
- Low: 6,924.25 - Tested S2 Friday Close Area
- Close: ~6,980 - Near Y-POC (6,986)
- Range: 76.25 pts - High volatility pre-data
Weekly Levels vs. Monday Reality
- R2 (7,000): TESTED and REJECTED
- R3 (6,970-6,964): TESTED - passed through both ways
- S1 (6,935-6,942): HELD - opened here
- S2 (6,920-6,932): HELD - low at 6,924.25
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2. TODAY'S SENTIMENT AND FLOWS
SPX Greek Hedging (Volland Data)
- Delta Hedging: $17.4B - Dealers hedging SPX price moves
- Vega Hedging: $51.4M - Hedging against volatility changes
$17.4B daily delta hedging creates mechanical flow that amplifies moves.
China Data Tonight (20:30 ET)
- CPI YoY: 0.4% exp vs 0.8% prior
- PPI YoY: -1.5% exp vs -1.9% prior
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3. TUESDAY ECONOMIC CALENDAR
08:30 ET - RETAIL SALES MoM | Exp: 0.4% | Prior: 0.6% | HIGH IMPACT
12:00 - Fed's Hammack Speaks
13:00 - Fed's Logan Speaks
16:00 - Trump on Fox Business - WILD CARD
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4. KEY LEVELS - Tuesday Feb 10
RESISTANCE
R1: 7,040-7,043 - PWH / ATH Zone
R2: 7,000-7,005 - Psychological (REJECTED Monday)
R3: 6,983-6,986 - Monday High / Y-POC
R4: 6,970-6,975 - Strong High Zone
SUPPORT
S1: 6,964-6,970 - Entry Zone
S2: 6,948-6,952 - Offer Wall
S3: 6,935-6,942 - Monday Open (HELD)
S4: 6,920-6,925 - Monday Low (HELD)
CRITICAL: 6,980 - Y-POC / Monday Close
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5. BOTTOM LINE
Monday proved the market is coiled but not committed. A 76-point range that ended flat = everyone waiting for Wednesday.
Tuesday Strategy: Trade the range, respect the edges, preserve capital.
Good Luck !!!
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OVERALL BIAS: BEARISH INTO WEDNESDAY (UNCHANGED)
Monday validated the volatility thesis but not the directional conviction. The 76-point intraday range (6,924 to 7,000) showed both sides getting tested. Wednesday's NFP + CPI simultaneous release remains THE event. Light positioning today.
---
1. WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED MONDAY
Monday's Session Data (Verified)
- Open: 6,935.50 - Gap DOWN 51 pts from Friday close (6,986)
- High: 7,000.50 - Tested Y-VAH / R2 Psychological Level
- Low: 6,924.25 - Tested S2 Friday Close Area
- Close: ~6,980 - Near Y-POC (6,986)
- Range: 76.25 pts - High volatility pre-data
Weekly Levels vs. Monday Reality
- R2 (7,000): TESTED and REJECTED
- R3 (6,970-6,964): TESTED - passed through both ways
- S1 (6,935-6,942): HELD - opened here
- S2 (6,920-6,932): HELD - low at 6,924.25
---
2. TODAY'S SENTIMENT AND FLOWS
SPX Greek Hedging (Volland Data)
- Delta Hedging: $17.4B - Dealers hedging SPX price moves
- Vega Hedging: $51.4M - Hedging against volatility changes
$17.4B daily delta hedging creates mechanical flow that amplifies moves.
China Data Tonight (20:30 ET)
- CPI YoY: 0.4% exp vs 0.8% prior
- PPI YoY: -1.5% exp vs -1.9% prior
---
3. TUESDAY ECONOMIC CALENDAR
08:30 ET - RETAIL SALES MoM | Exp: 0.4% | Prior: 0.6% | HIGH IMPACT
12:00 - Fed's Hammack Speaks
13:00 - Fed's Logan Speaks
16:00 - Trump on Fox Business - WILD CARD
---
4. KEY LEVELS - Tuesday Feb 10
RESISTANCE
R1: 7,040-7,043 - PWH / ATH Zone
R2: 7,000-7,005 - Psychological (REJECTED Monday)
R3: 6,983-6,986 - Monday High / Y-POC
R4: 6,970-6,975 - Strong High Zone
SUPPORT
S1: 6,964-6,970 - Entry Zone
S2: 6,948-6,952 - Offer Wall
S3: 6,935-6,942 - Monday Open (HELD)
S4: 6,920-6,925 - Monday Low (HELD)
CRITICAL: 6,980 - Y-POC / Monday Close
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5. BOTTOM LINE
Monday proved the market is coiled but not committed. A 76-point range that ended flat = everyone waiting for Wednesday.
Tuesday Strategy: Trade the range, respect the edges, preserve capital.
Good Luck !!!
If you want to contact me Email: info@algoindex.com or algoindex.com
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
If you want to contact me Email: info@algoindex.com or algoindex.com
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.