I'd say hold onto your hats folks. IDK when, but this tower of babylon will not reach the heavens.
my UVXY calls go until october december and january (safety valves).
If youre long good luck, for everything there is a season.
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Might be a strange thing to addon, but almost every major crash/"correction" starts at or around a new moon. New moon is the top dark circle (full moon is bottom white circle).
Basically every crash except sep 2021. idk food for thought.
New moon is coming soon. Waning crescent now.
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For whatever reason, new moons seem to initiate dumps. New moon was sep 7.
I guess a market is a feminine thing. Just like cars are feminine and boats are feminine. You do go inside the market.... heavy flow days around new moon?
Things are really kinda amazing. I had some crazy dreams last night.
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7 continuos days of sp losses. according to heisen aiki bars (better bars)
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Moment I posted this is the moment of th drop lol Somebody is watching lol
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It's weird dude. creepy and weird.
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Hit play on the chart. AM I WRONG? creepy and strange..
When will a trend reverse? A costly question...As usual I use twice the 20 day average true range to buy UVXY common or the call options.I really just looking for the 3 to 4 sigma event and not the 10% correction here to nmake a pile of money. Yes it looks like a chart that should and will correct. "When" is the costly game to play. since the trend is downward on the volatility roll there is no money to be made on things like a call credit vertical on any volatility instrument - everybody knows volatility is crushed as an investment so it is risk a lot to gain a little. thatis right up to the black swan event.
When it happens it is funny that the press always looks for losers and blame to place. where there are losers there are winners. I try to study and do what the winners do.
Hope the pup iswell and the Fall season there is beautiful.
Take care
all the best.
Schmitty69
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@Spotshooter1983, I agree, they are very difficult to time especially nowadays. I come from crypto, which is a hyper manipulated market. In hyper manipulated markets standard indicators are not so helpful (especially how I trade). I look purely at the fundamental reality of the underlying market and take positions accordingly.
This current market is hyper collateralized debt that is pledged and repledged between 6-20 times over. In that environment there wont be a 10% correction. It will be a massive market crash just like March 2020. Except there arent many grounds for recovery like last time.
I believe the "black swan" is a myth. I think in order to crash a market hard (due to financial exhaustion of the manipulators or group of manipulators) they need to blame a single thing ( GFC sub prime mortgages (collateralized debt), 911 (US gov was bankrupt), March 2020 ("voldemort", but actually collateralized debt again).
So I take out super long range calls on a bottomed vol instrument. If no crash happens before January, I would be shocked, and I would just roll the calls. Market is on a death march over the cliff.
The pup is always with me in my spirit. I miss him everyday though. :)
Thanks for the message! It was nice speaking with you again.
P.S. I wouldn't suggest this trading style on anyone lol It is a BLOODY hunt.
When it happens it is funny that the press always looks for losers and blame to place. where there are losers there are winners. I try to study and do what the winners do.
Hope the pup iswell and the Fall season there is beautiful.
Take care
all the best.