August 16 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Balance Area; Russell $1,600 Supply Area; Stronger Selling; Buyer’s Non-Committal; Market Still In Uptrend.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices digested prior advances, evidenced by the non-separation of value.
Recapping last week’s action, Monday's higher open on pandemic relief efforts coming from the White House was erased on a liquidation to Friday’s range. Buyers later responded, establishing a v-bottom before resolving the contract adjusted all-time-high, overnight. After investors shrugged off news of simmering geopolitical tensions, Tuesday’s U.S. session gave back all advances, liquidating enough to repair the poor structure below $3,330.
Alongside news of resilient fuel demand, relative strength shifted to the Nasdaq Wednesday, with equity indices squeezing shorts and erasing the low-volume area left behind Tuesday’s liquidation. Thursday’s overnight activity caught up to Wednesday’s divergent delta, drifting lower alongside uninspiring political news. During the U.S. session, the S&P managed to pop higher, to and through the resting liquidity at the $3,375 area, before testing lower and closing in-range, neutral. The session’s narrative carried forward with Friday’s session ending the week in-balance and range.
In light of dull participation, the risks of a pullback have increased. Buyers lack the conviction to follow-through and sellers are beginning to step up on the liquidations that get rid of those weak buyers. The Russell 2000 closed the week off lower after coming to the $1,600 supply area. The Nasdaq, despite regaining relative strength, failed to make a new high, balancing out into week-end.
To see a positive change in tone, there needs to be separation of value beyond the all-time-high. Until then, the potential exists for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the emotional, momentum-driven participants.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
NY Fed Manufacturing; NAHB Housing Market Index; Building Permits; Housing Starts; Initial Claims; Philly Fed Business Index; Leading Index; PMI; Existing Home Sales.
Fundamental:
Senate leaves until September without coronavirus relief deal. bit.ly/3iN4FC2
Coronavirus vaccine won’t become widely available to Americans until 2021. bit.ly/2XRNfw6
U.S. retail sales slow in July; obstacles mount for nascent economic recovery. reut.rs/30XtDsA
Judge rejects a General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) case against Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU). reut.rs/342xTJa
Fortnite maker sues Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL). cnn.it/2Ct9Zeq
United States petroleum inventories show a gradual rebalancing. reut.rs/3iJWK8V
Economy not enjoying a V-shape recovery, but is instead on the verge of a W-shape. bit.ly/31Syqun
Trump’s executive orders to shore up the economy will not be sufficient. bit.ly/31Syqun
ARK Invest CEO and CIO recaps recovery, reasons optimistic perspective. bit.ly/2E3PRQC
JOLTS shows far fewer jobs added in than the department's NFP report. bit.ly/2XRNfw6
Market avoids the Great Recession’s calamities, but economy struggling. bit.ly/30ULtwo
Credit quality worsened again as the effects of the pandemic continued to weight. bit.ly/30ULtwo
Trading volumes remain elevated, even as volatility returns to more normal levels. bit.ly/3fUn5zg
Post-election regime should stimulate growth through capital friendly policies. bit.ly/2DRgVTc
New York’s statewide positive test rate has remained at 1% for two months. bit.ly/33QipYN
The new economy stocks drive markets, but recovery won’t be v-shaped. bit.ly/2XWqiYH
The budget deal changes the way financial markets look at the eurozone. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
Producer prices rose by the most since October 2018, following June decline. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
Weak revenue environment will lead to fiscal austerity and higher leverage. bit.ly/3iyHag6
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) in talks with Kabbage over acquisition. bit.ly/30ONABI
Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) relaunches Twitch Prime as Prime Gaming. tcrn.ch/2XMsTVd
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces 5-for-1 stock split on August 31. bit.ly/3kzTnmw
Saudi Aramco sees a recovery in global oil demand, justifying export prices. reut.rs/2XNtPZk
COVID-19 will accelerate supply chain shifts in a more fragmented trade system. bit.ly/2FjpSFD
General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) jumps ship to join startup Stripe. reut.rs/33OO1Oe
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to produce 1B vaccines by next year. reut.rs/2DSlgFx
Court reverses antitrust ruling against Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM). reut.rs/2XU6SDM
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) curbs ads by U.S. news publishers with political ties. reut.rs/2DBmWnj
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) to cut debt before boosting output. reut.rs/2PGr3ka
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 737 MAX cancellations rise, deliveries drop as crises drags on. reut.rs/3aiGdpu
U.S.-China trade deal in fine shape, White House’s Kudlow says. reut.rs/33TqRGy
Gold has had its worst day in 7 years, but investors remain bullish. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
The U.S. already is feeling the impacts of ending unemployment benefits. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) bid for GM’s credit card business. reut.rs/3ahsC1A
Microsoft Inc (NASDAQ: MSFT) dual-screen Android phone to arrive September 10. reut.rs/3kEMQqN
Airbnb plans to confidentially file for an IPO in August. reut.rs/30O44Kv
U.S. energy bankruptcy surge continues on credit, oil-price squeeze. reut.rs/33OXhBZ
Fed moves too far from mandate, fine tuning poses increased risks. bit.ly/3fO53P4
Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) eyes Sears, J.C. Penney stores for fulfillment. on.wsj.com/2Dz3I1D
One-third of American renters expected to miss their august payment. bloom.bg/30MsKmE
More than a third of Americans wouldn’t take a free and approved COVID vaccine. bit.ly/3kC6fbJ
How did COVID-19 and stabilization policies affect spending, employment. bit.ly/30MsyDH
COVID-19’s impact on commercial jet fuel demand is significant and uneven. bit.ly/3afiIgH
Coronavirus shutdowns reduce consumption, shift energy costs to individuals. on.wsj.com/31F9V3T
U.K.’s faster-than-expected recovery prompts BOE to lower impairments forecast. bit.ly/3gQaUo8
Intercontinental Exchange Inc’s (NYSE: ICE) Ellie Mae acquisition is credit negative. bit.ly/3gQaUo8
U.S. loan to Eastman Kodak Co (NYSE: KODK) won’t proceed if allegations remain. reut.rs/3gNM9ZN
Shares of major airlines rose on increases in the U.S. TSA screening numbers. reut.rs/3fOtkob
Federal Reserve announces post-stress test capital ratios for large banks. reut.rs/2XNzeQ6
Sentiment: 30.3% Bullish, 27.8% Neutral, 42.1% Bearish as of 8/12/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 5,235,179,076 as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 43% as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY
SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ
NDQ
Russell 2000 (RTY):
IWM
RUT
Gold (GC):
XAUUSD
XAU
GLD
GDX
Crude Oil (CL):
USO
DBO
USL
USOIL
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Balance Area; Russell $1,600 Supply Area; Stronger Selling; Buyer’s Non-Committal; Market Still In Uptrend.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices digested prior advances, evidenced by the non-separation of value.
Recapping last week’s action, Monday's higher open on pandemic relief efforts coming from the White House was erased on a liquidation to Friday’s range. Buyers later responded, establishing a v-bottom before resolving the contract adjusted all-time-high, overnight. After investors shrugged off news of simmering geopolitical tensions, Tuesday’s U.S. session gave back all advances, liquidating enough to repair the poor structure below $3,330.
Alongside news of resilient fuel demand, relative strength shifted to the Nasdaq Wednesday, with equity indices squeezing shorts and erasing the low-volume area left behind Tuesday’s liquidation. Thursday’s overnight activity caught up to Wednesday’s divergent delta, drifting lower alongside uninspiring political news. During the U.S. session, the S&P managed to pop higher, to and through the resting liquidity at the $3,375 area, before testing lower and closing in-range, neutral. The session’s narrative carried forward with Friday’s session ending the week in-balance and range.
In light of dull participation, the risks of a pullback have increased. Buyers lack the conviction to follow-through and sellers are beginning to step up on the liquidations that get rid of those weak buyers. The Russell 2000 closed the week off lower after coming to the $1,600 supply area. The Nasdaq, despite regaining relative strength, failed to make a new high, balancing out into week-end.
To see a positive change in tone, there needs to be separation of value beyond the all-time-high. Until then, the potential exists for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the emotional, momentum-driven participants.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
NY Fed Manufacturing; NAHB Housing Market Index; Building Permits; Housing Starts; Initial Claims; Philly Fed Business Index; Leading Index; PMI; Existing Home Sales.
Fundamental:
Senate leaves until September without coronavirus relief deal. bit.ly/3iN4FC2
Coronavirus vaccine won’t become widely available to Americans until 2021. bit.ly/2XRNfw6
U.S. retail sales slow in July; obstacles mount for nascent economic recovery. reut.rs/30XtDsA
Judge rejects a General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) case against Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU). reut.rs/342xTJa
Fortnite maker sues Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL). cnn.it/2Ct9Zeq
United States petroleum inventories show a gradual rebalancing. reut.rs/3iJWK8V
Economy not enjoying a V-shape recovery, but is instead on the verge of a W-shape. bit.ly/31Syqun
Trump’s executive orders to shore up the economy will not be sufficient. bit.ly/31Syqun
ARK Invest CEO and CIO recaps recovery, reasons optimistic perspective. bit.ly/2E3PRQC
JOLTS shows far fewer jobs added in than the department's NFP report. bit.ly/2XRNfw6
Market avoids the Great Recession’s calamities, but economy struggling. bit.ly/30ULtwo
Credit quality worsened again as the effects of the pandemic continued to weight. bit.ly/30ULtwo
Trading volumes remain elevated, even as volatility returns to more normal levels. bit.ly/3fUn5zg
Post-election regime should stimulate growth through capital friendly policies. bit.ly/2DRgVTc
New York’s statewide positive test rate has remained at 1% for two months. bit.ly/33QipYN
The new economy stocks drive markets, but recovery won’t be v-shaped. bit.ly/2XWqiYH
The budget deal changes the way financial markets look at the eurozone. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
Producer prices rose by the most since October 2018, following June decline. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
Weak revenue environment will lead to fiscal austerity and higher leverage. bit.ly/3iyHag6
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) in talks with Kabbage over acquisition. bit.ly/30ONABI
Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) relaunches Twitch Prime as Prime Gaming. tcrn.ch/2XMsTVd
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces 5-for-1 stock split on August 31. bit.ly/3kzTnmw
Saudi Aramco sees a recovery in global oil demand, justifying export prices. reut.rs/2XNtPZk
COVID-19 will accelerate supply chain shifts in a more fragmented trade system. bit.ly/2FjpSFD
General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) jumps ship to join startup Stripe. reut.rs/33OO1Oe
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to produce 1B vaccines by next year. reut.rs/2DSlgFx
Court reverses antitrust ruling against Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM). reut.rs/2XU6SDM
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) curbs ads by U.S. news publishers with political ties. reut.rs/2DBmWnj
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) to cut debt before boosting output. reut.rs/2PGr3ka
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 737 MAX cancellations rise, deliveries drop as crises drags on. reut.rs/3aiGdpu
U.S.-China trade deal in fine shape, White House’s Kudlow says. reut.rs/33TqRGy
Gold has had its worst day in 7 years, but investors remain bullish. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
The U.S. already is feeling the impacts of ending unemployment benefits. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) bid for GM’s credit card business. reut.rs/3ahsC1A
Microsoft Inc (NASDAQ: MSFT) dual-screen Android phone to arrive September 10. reut.rs/3kEMQqN
Airbnb plans to confidentially file for an IPO in August. reut.rs/30O44Kv
U.S. energy bankruptcy surge continues on credit, oil-price squeeze. reut.rs/33OXhBZ
Fed moves too far from mandate, fine tuning poses increased risks. bit.ly/3fO53P4
Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) eyes Sears, J.C. Penney stores for fulfillment. on.wsj.com/2Dz3I1D
One-third of American renters expected to miss their august payment. bloom.bg/30MsKmE
More than a third of Americans wouldn’t take a free and approved COVID vaccine. bit.ly/3kC6fbJ
How did COVID-19 and stabilization policies affect spending, employment. bit.ly/30MsyDH
COVID-19’s impact on commercial jet fuel demand is significant and uneven. bit.ly/3afiIgH
Coronavirus shutdowns reduce consumption, shift energy costs to individuals. on.wsj.com/31F9V3T
U.K.’s faster-than-expected recovery prompts BOE to lower impairments forecast. bit.ly/3gQaUo8
Intercontinental Exchange Inc’s (NYSE: ICE) Ellie Mae acquisition is credit negative. bit.ly/3gQaUo8
U.S. loan to Eastman Kodak Co (NYSE: KODK) won’t proceed if allegations remain. reut.rs/3gNM9ZN
Shares of major airlines rose on increases in the U.S. TSA screening numbers. reut.rs/3fOtkob
Federal Reserve announces post-stress test capital ratios for large banks. reut.rs/2XNzeQ6
Sentiment: 30.3% Bullish, 27.8% Neutral, 42.1% Bearish as of 8/12/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 5,235,179,076 as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 43% as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY
SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ
NDQ
Russell 2000 (RTY):
IWM
RUT
Gold (GC):
XAUUSD
XAU
GLD
GDX
Crude Oil (CL):
USO
DBO
USL
USOIL
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Comment:
Dark Pool Index is Trending Lower*, not higher. My apologies.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
