CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES
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Daily Oversold, If the Double is not violated, and confirms. Watch for the reversal, that might take the ES to test the next TL resistance. The Double bottom target would be a good place to hold on with tight stop. Provided the DB             holds and confirms..
Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
Been staring at that too. Keep in mind the rollover today as well.
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ucsgears PRO Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
The Internals here shows no interest, from both buyers and sellers in the market.
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Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
Also note worth are the bonds reaching resistance on multiple time frames and $CL testing those lows...
AS I am writing ES testing those lows....
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ucsgears PRO Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
Well, It can slide a bit upto 2035. Wait for the confirmation, buy the pullback.
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Justiceisfalse ucsgears
2 years ago
picked up 2033.50s
Huge defense of the 205 on SPY due to huge put OI there.
Would love some "V" action now!
GOOGL also got triggered for me but I'll wait for positive action to jump there.
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broken87
2 years ago
the volume is not their to confirm a solid bottom....look for 200 on the spy Next week. Need volume for a double bottom. Dont have it. Going lower
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Justiceisfalse broken87
2 years ago
It's a total gamble here. Risk is small for me. Running a stop pretty tight.
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ucsgears PRO Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
Good Plan. For a low risk entry, you can take this gamble. or take it after the confirmation and have a wider stop.

Per broken87, yes you need volume to confirm double bottom. Notice how the VOLSPD is moving today, The Conviction from sellers / buyers is not shown yet. Upon Confirmation, the VolSpd will spike up above 500. The TICK with such VOLSPD will also hit 1200's.That would be ideal for SPX, reversal. another view from the PC ratio is pretty much nothing out there, There may be a sideways grind and a flush (with volume) pc spike, leading to a good short covering rally.

For an Options trader, this is not ideal to long any options. Because they will get toasted if the options go against them. This is a good place to initiate one side of the IC, and leggin the other side, upon spike failure. The other way is to add a tight Diagonal, directionally, where you can build a long exposure with forward month(week) and short the current month. That would minimize the risk on this gamble. There are other things that can be done to play this, there is no right way. What fits your personality is the right way for you.
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Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
Proved to be a nice little scalp out at 2046.50
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ucsgears PRO Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
Yes, It is. Good Job. The TICKS were hitting extreme Buys at the close. The bigger and the most important question is, if this pressure will keep up monday. We will find out monday morning
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Justiceisfalse ucsgears
2 years ago
It went right to the trendline+200ema on 5min. Usually the 50 and/or 200ema for a given timeframe is where I look for an entry on a continuation pattern. In this case I used it for my exit target.

On the daily, the 50ema provided great short entries on $CL and $BRN in the last 2 weeks.
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ucsgears PRO
2 years ago
Monday Gaps have the lowest probability for a GAP FILL. And a 8pt+ Gap have the Lower Probability as well. Don't Hope for the "GAP FILL" although it can happen, the probability is 36.8%. Do I want to trade a 36.8% probability, HELL NO.....
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ucsgears PRO ucsgears
2 years ago
I meant, Same day Gap fill.
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Justiceisfalse ucsgears
2 years ago
Nice stat. 2075-81 looks like its on deck, but hard to do anything with conviction in to the Wed FOMC meeting.
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ucsgears PRO Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
I do have a hybrid options position on SPY. Few Calls and PCS to compensate the time decay. Got them on few confirming low risk signals, That I use mostly.
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ucsgears PRO Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
FOMC, is just a scare crow tactic, pulled in by most of the so called GURUs out there, Causing the hype and panic for 15-30 mins after the meeting minutes. If one has learned trading from such a GURU, then I don't Blame them. I trade Stats and Probability. After the hype and panic, the market resume its thing. more than 90% of the time, FEDs don't set panic in the market, if they do, that's just one time event, with the lowest probability. A well risk managed position is the way to go about this.
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Justiceisfalse ucsgears
2 years ago
Thanks for the insight.
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ucsgears PRO Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
You are welcome, Just One ADVICE i can give you is, stop following all these panic builders, on FOMC / OPEX / and any other. Its not in anybody's best interest with power to bash their economy. I know its hard to trust them, But do trust, they don't want to ruin things. One example is "Debt Ceiling" Which is climbing non stop. If they fail to do so, Collapse could be worse. Will they? "NOT IN THEIR WATCH"
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ucsgears PRO ucsgears
2 years ago
wish there was on ETF on debt ceiling levels, I would park my cash, betting it go higher, on new govts. and retire for life. ;)
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ucsgears PRO
2 years ago
If you love to focus on Index (and its derivatives) Always learn, what the internals are telling you. The best timing tool, Apart from the Price action, to Time Bottom and Top. This need excessive coding, If I have time, I can code this stuff. Trust me, it will not take more than a week to learn this.
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Justiceisfalse ucsgears
2 years ago
You looking at a mix TICK, TRIN, Advance/decline, % above/below 20/50sma?
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ucsgears PRO Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
And VolSPD. Mostly I focus on, TICK and VOLSPD, I have a txt alert for TRIN extremes via TOS. The best source I use is stockcharts. TV subscription rates are high.
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Justiceisfalse ucsgears
2 years ago
I might be able to get you some VERY cheap granular tick data via http://alphamodus.com/alphamodus/
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ucsgears PRO
2 years ago
Despite the Rally in price, the internal shows no strength, but no conviction. This could point a correction very close by, unless they turn bullish before close.
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