Trends call for some upward movement; Conditions still flat
So I'm Long again in the ES from 4180 at the 6hr Higher Low downtrend point. I'm looking to see if we can get a 30m or even a 1hr uptrend and then I will likely cash out. I've an issue with the excessive upward slope of the 6hr, so I am currently looking at it as unreliable, but maybe over the next few weeks we will see a strong swing upward.
This flat market (especially on a Weekly Analysis) is difficult to trade in, and I find it difficult to see things opening up room to the upside. The Market is still primarily being held up by the top companies and P/E forward earning ratios are just excessive in those companies. NVidia is trading at 175x Forward Earnings. I mean I get that the company has a good forward projection, but 175x Forward Earnings?!
Anyways, Trends into today (Note... I realized in the video I had accidentally updated them to Lower High's... I've corrected them they are Higher Low's as they are all in downtrends)
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4219 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4219 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4207 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4204 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4194 Downtrend (5/31/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4182 Downtrend (5/31/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4224 Uptrend (5/28/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
If we fall below the 6hr line and then push back above, I'd see that as a potential entry point. That or if we fall today and hit a 12hr higher low. I don't see the floor falling out underneath us just yet, so any dip may be an entry point briefly for an upward push towards mid day like we've seen over and over.
The Short Position;
A strong push below the 6hr ascending line, currently at about 4192, could be a strong move to get a 12hr downtrend at least. Additionally, if we see upward movement and get a 30m/1hr uptrend, it may be an entry point to the downside.
Economic Data;
Jobs data and Manufacturing data today. Usually has some impact though I feel we've become fairly immune to the jobs data at this point. Bigger data points I think will be tomorrow.
My Sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Slight bullish
Long Term - Neutral/Reluctantly Bullish
Safe trading and remember your risk management plan!
This flat market (especially on a Weekly Analysis) is difficult to trade in, and I find it difficult to see things opening up room to the upside. The Market is still primarily being held up by the top companies and P/E forward earning ratios are just excessive in those companies. NVidia is trading at 175x Forward Earnings. I mean I get that the company has a good forward projection, but 175x Forward Earnings?!
Anyways, Trends into today (Note... I realized in the video I had accidentally updated them to Lower High's... I've corrected them they are Higher Low's as they are all in downtrends)
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4219 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4219 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4207 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4204 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4194 Downtrend (5/31/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4182 Downtrend (5/31/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4224 Uptrend (5/28/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
If we fall below the 6hr line and then push back above, I'd see that as a potential entry point. That or if we fall today and hit a 12hr higher low. I don't see the floor falling out underneath us just yet, so any dip may be an entry point briefly for an upward push towards mid day like we've seen over and over.
The Short Position;
A strong push below the 6hr ascending line, currently at about 4192, could be a strong move to get a 12hr downtrend at least. Additionally, if we see upward movement and get a 30m/1hr uptrend, it may be an entry point to the downside.
Economic Data;
Jobs data and Manufacturing data today. Usually has some impact though I feel we've become fairly immune to the jobs data at this point. Bigger data points I think will be tomorrow.
My Sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Slight bullish
Long Term - Neutral/Reluctantly Bullish
Safe trading and remember your risk management plan!
Comment:
Just FYI, I am home today but as I leave tomorrow for my next trip until Sunday, I am not going to work and just stay out. Next week I will be back!
I think the FOMC is going to be pushed into continued monetary tightening and raising rates as this inflation persists.