Weekly Update: Has the Stock Market Topped?

CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
Anyone who answers yes or no definitively to that question is really just guessing. As a practitioner of Elliott Wave I can answer that question in two-parts.

1) There is not enough price action to make such a determination

In my trading room we discuss the key levels that need to be breached to even start to consider the upside pattern is cracking. To date, we're far away from those levels. Nothing provides confirmation, like confirmation. Now granted Elliottitions will have many clues along the way with the price action pattern being the most important, but until we breach 3502 in the SPX Futures, this pattern off the October lows could sub-divide into an even more complex structure, denying both bulls and bears a break out or break down.

In the micro pattern, there's also nothing conclusive pointing to the downside.

2) Retracement Levels

Yesterday's trading day saw price in the futures get to 4305.75. In my analysis I have the .618% retracement level of the pattern from the January 2022 all time highs to the October 2022 lows at 4309.50. Since we did not tag that level, and currently have no compelling downside set up in place, I have to assume we will eventually tag it.

Is it required? No.

However, to discount 4309.50 is to not know the significance of the .618%. I will not get into the importance that retracement and extension level represents except to say, we came within a hair of it yesterday.

When price patterns are retracing in counter trends or advancing in trends, the .618% and it's derivatives, the 1.618% and the 2.618% (mainly in commodities) are of major significance to an Elliotition and the wave count. Therefore I'll conclude by stating as to where price is today, and the proximity to the .618%, I would answer the question of "Has the stock market topped" by simply saying either it did yesterday, or it's top is imminent.

Anyone who says different, is truly guessing. Get Intraday Updates on ES & NQ, XLF, BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA, NG (Natural Gas) and Learn Elliott Wave and Become a Professional Trader for Profit. Also, see EVERY trade I open and close in real time. Daily conference calls Q&A at 430pm.

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