ES touched $2800 and poked through the top of its upper wedge resistance trendline. On a technical level we have one more push higher in C of (V) to complete before this fractal is over – but we may not get it.
I would like to see price complete this final wave by breaking upward vertically out of the wedge and hitting what has been my target since the bottom of wave (A) – $2850 - $2880 area. $2880 is my MUST SELL target.
From there we may get some sideways chop as we consolidate in wave (i) and (ii) of the new 5-wave fractal down in macro (C). That should push price back downward through the wedge and break it to the downside.
This is a classic setup the big boys use to create liquidity. As the wedge breaks upward shorts panic sell at the top as longs panic buy, then when the wedge breaks down those same traders fuel the decline.
I have no position currently... I plan to get short on a convincing upward break of the wedge, and add to any shorts at the key $2850 to $2880 magic levels. Downside expectations could stretch from $2000 - $2150 ES.
Trade active
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This idea is still valid and price is approaching our entry target.
Trade active
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We've exactly pegged the short sell zone. This is an excellent reward-risk area to short.
Thanks a lot for your informative chart on Oil and now on ES.
Mazzmannxx
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Great work. Wish I was following you before the relief rally started.
ladiesloveit
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Hi! I am following you on twitter very closely (matthew hanna). Are you still bearish? Ive been bearish since we hit 2600...
vergun
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@ladiesloveit, I am but this rally isn't complete yet, it needs one more push higher
ladiesloveit
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@vergun, you are amazing, thank you so much!!!!!!!!!!!!
Life2020
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Looks like your chart is playing out
Are we heading lower from here?
Thanks for sharing:-)
Lots of people on this site who Lost their jobs just trying to save their retirement accounts.
I'm one of them
vergun
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@Life2020, yes, however we may retest the 2800+ area before heading significantly lower
mhayeea
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Do you think that market can come down again considering how FED is introducing new ways of injecting money in the economy?
vergun
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@mhayeea, We're in a simple zig-zag correction (5-3-5 a-b-c); we've completed wave (a) and we're very near to completing wave (b); soon we will begin leg (c) which is a 5-wave fractal to the downside. We can theorize about what will be the catalyst to the downside but it's a pointless exercise because there's no way of validating your theory or my theory moreso than any other. If you want me to give you a catalyst however, earnings start next week and forward guidance is going to be... interesting (to say the least).