The Economy is breaking.
- Fed needs to kill inflation.
- Fed is measures future (core) inflation by looking at employment.
- Jobs are still strong. Practically, look at XLE, all those oil jobs.
- That said, fed can only deal with demand side inflation and has no plan for supply side inflation.
- Supply side inflation is the real problem and is controlled by OPEC and China.
- Fed needs to kill the economy. Evens predicts 2 125 bps hikes in 22, and no cuts in 23. GG.
The Internals are breaking.
- Buyers are exhausted.
- Buying rallies are driven by short selling not "investors".
- Rallies are gifts to short.
- Option positioning remains strongly bearish.
The technicals are poor.
- Wave C down incoming, this is the fastest wave down.
- We hit supply around 380, showing lack of conviction of sellers. (the bounce was just technical covering).
- Earnings compression incoming (hey there Uber, Tsla, and Aapl).
- Wait for a short cover rally, wait for it to 'trade on air' for an hour or two, then... pull the trigger.
- Targeting the JPM put levels for end of year.
- Fed needs to kill inflation.
- Fed is measures future (core) inflation by looking at employment.
- Jobs are still strong. Practically, look at XLE, all those oil jobs.
- That said, fed can only deal with demand side inflation and has no plan for supply side inflation.
- Supply side inflation is the real problem and is controlled by OPEC and China.
- Fed needs to kill the economy. Evens predicts 2 125 bps hikes in 22, and no cuts in 23. GG.
The Internals are breaking.
- Buyers are exhausted.
- Buying rallies are driven by short selling not "investors".
- Rallies are gifts to short.
- Option positioning remains strongly bearish.
The technicals are poor.
- Wave C down incoming, this is the fastest wave down.
- We hit supply around 380, showing lack of conviction of sellers. (the bounce was just technical covering).
- Earnings compression incoming (hey there Uber, Tsla, and Aapl).
- Wait for a short cover rally, wait for it to 'trade on air' for an hour or two, then... pull the trigger.
- Targeting the JPM put levels for end of year.