The Economy is breaking. - Fed needs to kill inflation. - Fed is measures future (core) inflation by looking at employment. - Jobs are still strong. Practically, look at XLE, all those oil jobs. - That said, fed can only deal with demand side inflation and has no plan for supply side inflation. - Supply side inflation is the real problem and is controlled by OPEC and China. - Fed needs to kill the economy. Evens predicts 2 125 bps hikes in 22, and no cuts in 23. GG.
The Internals are breaking. - Buyers are exhausted. - Buying rallies are driven by short selling not "investors". - Rallies are gifts to short. - Option positioning remains strongly bearish.
The technicals are poor. - Wave C down incoming, this is the fastest wave down. - We hit supply around 380, showing lack of conviction of sellers. (the bounce was just technical covering). - Earnings compression incoming (hey there Uber, Tsla, and Aapl). - Wait for a short cover rally, wait for it to 'trade on air' for an hour or two, then... pull the trigger. - Targeting the JPM put levels for end of year.
agree with your post. just wanted to pick you mind about something else US economy is based on internal consumption(not on exports) US purchasing power has been increasing as USD increases. so US can buy more staff. so people can consume more staff made in china. so the velosity of money in US should increase?