1. We can see that price has rallied above the neckline of the pattern. In 2008, price rallied off of the bottomed of the , after falling from the pattern, but found resistance at the neckline and failed to get above it.
2. We can see that price has also risen above the weekly 50 (in orange.) That did happen in 2008. Back then, we saw a period of four consecutive weeks where price had gotten above the 50 , after it had plummeted from the pattern and to the bottom of the channel. After that happened, there was a week where price closed above the weekly 50 , then a week below, then a week above, then a week below and then a major fall happened. Here, price is poised to close three consecutive weeks above the weekly 50 . So, there is slightly more strength in today's market, than there was at this point in the progression of the top in 2008.
With that said, we may see price fall back below the weekly 50 like it did in 2008, or we may see a rally toward the top of the (in blue.) Looking at the momentum indicators, the is continuing to expand to the upside, while the is also advancing nicely. So, that does suggest that price could continue higher, while the declining shows that more traders are side-stepping this area of the market.
I still believe that the top is in for this market, and that we are on the cusp of a very dramatic fall in equity prices. However, until price gets back below the neckline of the pattern, the short term bias remains to the upside.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Greenspan had the balls to pop the bubble by raising interest rates, Powell seems to have lost his and we're only at 2.5% which is still historically low. Powell has too many friends on Wall St. I think we're going to see an epic bubble that will collapse right before the next election (Oct 2020).
Right, the Fed now wants to slow down QT. A 25-basis point increase was "too much for the market to handle". So, they want the stimulus to continue. Reducing balance sheet is no longer a priority of the Fed.
It was the double hike (Sept/Dec) that was the issue. Dec hike was not necessary, he killed inflation with the Sept hike. What causes inflation? OIL! Because you need oil to produce anything. Obvious that it was all speculative money in oil futures, look how quickly it tanked. The reason why we're in an unprecedented era of no inflation is because of fracking.
In any case, don't fight the bubble. It won't pop until there is an impetus for money to flow out of the market. As long as money flows into the market, the bubble will grow. And keep in mind that every Friday/Monday money flows into the market in the form of 401k contributions.
That being said, I expect market weakness next week...
Where might one find this info?