EPS Season has been in line with our Projections for Q4, dismal would be Kind.
As we move into Tech Reporting, it is important to remember Apple's guidance
fro 10 Million iPhone Delivery was low, and share buybacks were to be halted
into EPS during the Blackout Period.
Money Center Banks began reporting and were Sold.
Retail Sales missed by a large margin.
ES closed flat Friday.
10 Year rose 8 basis points Friday. The BOE's 10 Yr and The Mid Bund rose 4 basis
points as well.
We are approaching the next FOMC on January 25/26th.
FOMC Voting Members have become increasingly critical of Powell, suggesting the
Federal Reserve is well behind the Curve in raising FED Funds and going so far as to
suggest it may be necessary to increase the Dot Plot to 4 to 7 increases for 2022.
Clarida departs next week.
_____________________________________________________________________
Oil was up 2.7% Friday.
Friday's Price action was one of indecision.
Investors are not gaining confidence, they see FED FUNDS increases as a potential
threat to Forward EPS.
There has been an aggressive move down from All-Time Highs.
______________________________________________________________________
The Chart Structure is quite Clear, the only reservation is one of "B" and its potential
for a retracement.
The Value Line Index has diverged from the S&P500, this has historically been an important
warning for further follow on the downside.
Fear and Confidence have been shaken, the FED is no longer (Short Trem) able to gain
the upper hand and turning on Policy... only compounds the Issues.
Over the past 22 months, every Dip has been a buying opportunity. Of late this has not
worked out.
Lower Highers on VX with Higher Lows, it is wedging into a Break, a rather Large Break.
_______________________________________________________________________
Many of the younger YouTubers and "Analyst" have been suing Short Term Technical Analysis
to justify and unwarranted Bias.
Peleton Pumper - "Meet Kevin" saw his #1 Tout lose 80% of its Price.
Everyone is a genius in a Bull Market.
________________________________________________________________________
S&P Market BReadth is trending lower as the 711s have been the Go To trade.
There are a number of Divergences, all very Negative.
Retail will attempt to buy the 200 SMA Test.
It resides @ 4420, it aligns nicely with .618 Calc @ 4426.
As this develops, we will see IF Structure 4/5 completes 1/5 and how 2/5's ABC
Replacement unfolds.
__________________________________________________________________________
We would anticipate this to drag on into March into the completion of 4/5 after the 1-5 ABC.
We see a Gap on the ES @ 401 being filled within this correction as a higher than usual Potential.
As we move into Tech Reporting, it is important to remember Apple's guidance
fro 10 Million iPhone Delivery was low, and share buybacks were to be halted
into EPS during the Blackout Period.
Money Center Banks began reporting and were Sold.
Retail Sales missed by a large margin.
ES closed flat Friday.
10 Year rose 8 basis points Friday. The BOE's 10 Yr and The Mid Bund rose 4 basis
points as well.
We are approaching the next FOMC on January 25/26th.
FOMC Voting Members have become increasingly critical of Powell, suggesting the
Federal Reserve is well behind the Curve in raising FED Funds and going so far as to
suggest it may be necessary to increase the Dot Plot to 4 to 7 increases for 2022.
Clarida departs next week.
_____________________________________________________________________
Oil was up 2.7% Friday.
Friday's Price action was one of indecision.
Investors are not gaining confidence, they see FED FUNDS increases as a potential
threat to Forward EPS.
There has been an aggressive move down from All-Time Highs.
______________________________________________________________________
The Chart Structure is quite Clear, the only reservation is one of "B" and its potential
for a retracement.
The Value Line Index has diverged from the S&P500, this has historically been an important
warning for further follow on the downside.
Fear and Confidence have been shaken, the FED is no longer (Short Trem) able to gain
the upper hand and turning on Policy... only compounds the Issues.
Over the past 22 months, every Dip has been a buying opportunity. Of late this has not
worked out.
Lower Highers on VX with Higher Lows, it is wedging into a Break, a rather Large Break.
_______________________________________________________________________
Many of the younger YouTubers and "Analyst" have been suing Short Term Technical Analysis
to justify and unwarranted Bias.
Peleton Pumper - "Meet Kevin" saw his #1 Tout lose 80% of its Price.
Everyone is a genius in a Bull Market.
________________________________________________________________________
S&P Market BReadth is trending lower as the 711s have been the Go To trade.
There are a number of Divergences, all very Negative.
Retail will attempt to buy the 200 SMA Test.
It resides @ 4420, it aligns nicely with .618 Calc @ 4426.
As this develops, we will see IF Structure 4/5 completes 1/5 and how 2/5's ABC
Replacement unfolds.
__________________________________________________________________________
We would anticipate this to drag on into March into the completion of 4/5 after the 1-5 ABC.
We see a Gap on the ES @ 401 being filled within this correction as a higher than usual Potential.