I first showed this fractal of the S&P500 September 9th, 2019, when the S&P was at 2982. In that analysis, I showed how a pattern had emerged on the weekly moving averages. You can see that, beginning from the left side of the chart, price first held on the 200 week MA (pink circle.) Then price rallied above the 50 week MA and held it twice (two green circles.) From there, price went on a long bullish rise. The first warning signal of a slowdown was when price retested the 50 week MA (yellow circle.) A while later, price broke down below the 50 MA, and held new support on the 200 MA (pink circle.) As you can see, the cycle repeated itself perfectly, all over again.
However, I've noticed that the time from the second test of the 50 week MA (second green circle) to the warning sign (yellow circle) has been getting shorter and shorter. The first time it happened, it took about 700 days. The second time it happened took about 511 days. Now, it appears as though we may be testing the 50 week in the very near future. If that happens, only about 210 days have passed. So, in my opinion, it's a sign that the strength of this fractal is becoming increasingly weak. Coupling that with my recession indicator (which is close to signaling) and you can see that we could be close to a major breaking point in this eleven year old bull market — the longest lasting bull market in modern history.
Just from a longevity standpoint, we have to consider that this market may be wobbling on it's last leg.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
So the virus caused it to panic but the news of the virus has been around for over a month now? Seems it’s just random news everyone wants to associate with the market dump. Markets can’t stay up and keep making all time highs forever. All part of the market cycles. You know what comes next. Failed Rally with a lower high. Then the panic will really begin.
ArniBarni
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What does your recession indicator tell you after today, which was also a big leg down?
gvoommen
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You are the king
ParabolicP
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Nah needs garlic.
chorizo
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its easy to see thing from the rear view 10K foot view. Tell me whats gonna happen next week, and then Im impressed.
Q: how long do you anticipate the down draft to continue? 3000?, 2900? or 200 MA 2700?
With 1Q2020 data suggesting weak GDP, manufacture supply interruption, potential 2yr/10yr invertion again, what is the sensible option in the next 30 days?
I say, Gold?, Cash, and even BTC...I believe this will continue until March 30th. end of 1Q20, [ie sell the news and trade the outcome].
cheers happy trading
VickzinBK
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Very well put. I also think a recession can occur but most likely wont. This Carona panic on the other hand can reverse at any point propaganda goes in a positive favor. Do you think its best to long SPY at the moment or you think it has a possibility to fall slightly lower towards MA200?
david.czerwinski.dc
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The market jitters have been coming and helped by the media with the protests in Canada and Corono panic..... I have said that this designed market downturn is caused by the big players who are short on their positions, who own the media companies and the news cycle, and therefore are in a position to benefit from causing a market to turn in the other direction and get even richer as it drops..... Just my 2 or 3 bits... Lets see what happens.
venturetrade
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So is this the dip or start of a crash - this is the question