Overnight ES futures are signaling an SPX open right at the lows. As I have written about for weeks...I was calling for an ABC flat to complete wave 4. I am still expecting that to play out but I'll know this morning when the SPX opens if that is going to be reasonable.
The issue I have with that pattern now is this decline should be a 3 wave pattern that overlaps (a B Wave). This recent decline looks impulsive and the observer could reasonably conclude that this decline will continue. A continuation would've been my black count that I removed from the chart a couple days ago. This is the primary reason why no one should ever try to trade a wave 4. It's difficult to analyze let alone try to make money in it.
Suffice to say if we take out 3850-SPX then we may be headed another 100 points lower rather quickly.