S&P 500 Futures LT Adjustment (Jan 15th 2021 through Oct 2021)

CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) (January 2021 through October 2021)

Low: 3,583 points
High: 4,916 points

I've been bullish on the S&P 500 for a little bit of time now, but I don't believe I set my fibs up correctly in past charts.

Here's a basic synopsis of what I think the timeline could look like now:

  • I think the S&P 500 could go towards 4,259 points by February / March 2021. There may be a significant selloff near that level that could bring the ES back down to 3,700-3,800 points range, this could last well into April / May 2021 in my estimates.

  • This is where my idea gets a little bit unclear. I have many speculations that there will be a major market crash this year, and since we didn't see one the last half year, I do believe we still have bullish moves left to make, but where will the top be for the year?

  • If most markets can hold through whatever selloff I think is coming, S&P 500 could possibly find a new ATH towards 4,916 points next by October 2021. By then, I can almost guarantee a major selloff if that scenario happens. But it would still beg the question, is it the start of a bigger crash, or will it be just a correction in the grand scheme of the current wave? If a major market crash doesn't occur then, I would not be surprised to see S&P 500 head towards 6,000, 7,000, and possibly even 7,700 points not too long after 2021 through 2024-2026. But I'm already getting ahead of myself.

  • If a peak seen in February 2021 results in a correction that doesn't hold above 3,500-3,600 points, there could be a chance of going back to 3,000 points or lower. But I cannot say with 100% certainty, these are just price levels and trends I'll be watching closely.

  • One interesting coincidence/bias in my own thinking is my suspicion that if Bitcoin and crypto markets don't crash harder than a basic correction in the next 2 months, they could also have a significant run until October 2021. But that is based on a trend line in another chart that could mean absolutely nothing. Both stock and crypto markets seem to have coinciding timelines/major trend directions/corrections in my analyses and potential scenarios I can see playing out.

The idea this derived from comes from the related idea attached below:

Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!