Check out the video for a complete walk through of the daily market analysis of S&P 500 futures (ES) for 12 May 2020 trading session. In this video, I am going to show you the market recap on last session including trade review in M3 (entry, exit and the rationale behind), the bias going forward, the key levels to pay attention to, and the potential setup for the US session later.
11 May 2020 recap - yesterday S&P 500 had a sharp reaction from early European session leading into US opening, tested the support at 2890–2900. This level is an important support and was mentioned in my market analysis video yesterday. Subsequently S&P 500 recovered most of the losses and closed slightly lower at 2922.75. Check out my daily market analysis video below from yesterday if you haven't done so:
Trade review on yesterday session (Monday) - On M3 timeframe, prior the opening of the US session, S&P 500 dipped below 2900. Within 10 minutes of the opening, S&P committed above 2900 and started a small trading range before breaking out . There are quite a few potential long entries within the small trading range near 2900 support level as it showed supply absorption characteristics, as I pointed out in the video.
On the daily chart, the volume is slightly higher with normal spread and high close. On H1 timeframe, yesterday pullback from 2940 to 2890 during the non-RTH had slightly increasing supply yet did not manage to commit and stay below 2900, suggests supply absorption.
Going forward, ES is now in an apex formation pending to breakout. A break below 2900 could see it to test 2850 support level. Else, a breakout with continuation to the upside to at least 2960 is likely.
Potential setup - A pullback to the support level at 2900 with a reversal will provide a long entry. Else a rejection from resistance zone around 2920–2936 could form a short entry.
Hey Ming, has your mid to log term bias changed after today's es/spx close? Thanks
mingjong
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@M4m2m0th, Hey mate, my last line of defense is 2630. It S&P500 can commit above 2630, mid/long term is still up.
mingjong
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Do you expect S&P 500 to break up or down from the apex?
Dr_Roboto
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@mingjong, I am enjoying your videos. I learn something new every time. Thanks!
My analysis is a little mixed for the day. I am confident about a down turn in the next day or so, but today is unclear. Maybe sideways or even a quick test of the 2960 by early afternoon eastern time. Then I expect a pull back to 2800 or so for a day or two.
mingjong
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@Dr_Roboto, you are welcomed. Let's see if a meaningful pullback happen.
Strykes
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@Dr_Roboto, good call on the downturn. Was there anything in the charts that made you think a downturn was coming yesterday? And why do you think the pullback is temporary? Thanks.
Dr_Roboto
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@Strykes, checkout my Ideas for a full analysis (trend lines, AD line, and VIX). I don't want to clog up Ming's comment section. With futures up this morning, it is not clear what today holds. In the past today would be a solid drop. Not so sure right now.
lisa.racergrl
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@mingjong, Thanks for all your helpful videos! My guess is that there's a greater chance of a break higher to the swing high this week before a significant retrace to test lower levels. Have a great day!
mingjong
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@LiSa.racergrl, You are welcomed. Seems like the tide has turned since the selloff in the last hour yesterday. Now, become "will there be follow through to the downside?" lol...