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9/20 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan

CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
Recap

This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize.

Market Gauge

🟡 Neutral

The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Down slightly
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Down a bit
🔮 Crypto: Down a bit

World News

It’s Fed day. Rates will remain unchanged, but the market will be focused on the dot plot showing FOMC member’s interest-rate projections.

Key Structures

The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern, with 4470 support and 4552 resistance. 4542 is a multi-month magnet level, and 4496-4505 has been a persistent support since September 6th.

Support Levels

Key support levels for today are 4485 (major), 4470-73 (major), 4460, 4452, 4439 (major), 4433, 4419-24 (major), 4400-04, 4386 (major), 4374, 4366-64, 4355 (major),4343, 4336.

Resistance Levels

Key resistance levels for today are 4496, 4506-08 (major), 4515 (major), 4522, 4532, 4537, 4542, 4551-56 (major), 4561, 4566, 4573, 4580 (major), 4590, 4597, 4609 (major), 4618, 4624, 4634, 4643, 4647, 4657 (major), 4665 (major).

Trading Plan

Today is FOMC day, notorious for its volatility. The plan is to trade light, preferably not trading the action after the meeting at all, especially if a level-to-level piece can be taken before. The key supports to watch are 4485 and 4470-73. If 4470-73 cracks sustainably, we could see a violent, sustained leg down. All longs after that are high-risk knife catches to be done at your own discretion.

Wrap Up

Today is FOMC day, so the market is poised for volatility. The key is to take it light, protect profits, and watch. On a regular day, the lean would be that ES can base above 4485 (4470-73 lowest), then pop higher to 4506-08, 4515, dip, then push back up towards triangle resistance. If 4470 fails, down we go.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions

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