WYZ pattern unfolding? The decline off the highs in December consists of a complex series of 3 wave moves. I'm expecting another series of three waves to a final low for this bear run.
Where will this take us? God only knows although this presupposed decline will likely be larger than the first two. For now I'm labeling the target zone at the 1:1 Fib ratio of wave Y.
Time for this decline accuracy is not taken into account by the line drawn to the buy zone. I hope I'm wrong about this but with the world as worked up as it is would it surprise you?
A move beyond 4260 will negate this trade for me.
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ES Hourly.. So far pitchfork has contained the advance
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The white box is a potential termination of the proposed X wave before the Z wave to follow. This area contains a fib cluster and and the 1.5 & 1.75 tines of the pitchfork. A move above the tines would negate the WYZ pattern in my opinion.
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Market poised to hit the fib cluster outlined in Red Box. Let it come to you and confirm a topping action.
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Bearish Star Appears @ the Fib Cluster.... Topping Action Beginning?
not sure you realize, if index closes at/above 4230, then, officially, 3640 is the 2022 low.
oliverrathbun
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@orange369, Not sure I'm following you.... are you referring to overlap?
orange369
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@oliverrathbun, "Therefore, if the S & P 500 were to exceed 4,231, we would have to assume that June was the low for this cycle.” On Thursday, the S & P 500 ended the day at 4,151, nearing both its June high of 4,177 and a meaningful resistance level at 4,200. - said Jonathan Krinsky, Chief Technical Analyst at BTIG (this guy has been bearish to the bone, but technical analysis is what it is)
oliverrathbun
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@orange369, I can buy that. It's stretching the limits for the bear case as I have laid out in this scenario. There are some big names that are right at the brink of breakout or a breakdown. Look at Costco...who sells Costco unless the overall market is tanking...MSFT, AMZN, AMAT, NVDA ... all in similar position It's make or break very soon. Would you buy this COST Quasimodo pattern?
orange369
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@oliverrathbun, no, I wouldn't... the risk-return is asymmetric. based on the patterns some argue 2022 market is similar to 2000-2 dotcom bubble, other suggest 2008-10. what do you think?
oliverrathbun
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@orange369, This decline is different than 2008. That was textbook Elliot wave...would have been hard to miss. I don't think it's structurally like any other decline I've seen. It's a mess....kind of a reflection of the world in general right?
orange369
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@oliverrathbun, algos follow patterns, so it doesn't matter what my actions are. anyhow, thanks