SP500 - Simple for the next 3 months : Upside 5%, Downside 23%

119 3 4
We have 5 waves in a channel since Oct11.
The current wave could be extended a few weeks to the region 2100/2140. But why so fast for 200 and so slow the last 100? Smells gas.
In any case, the risk reward is ugly.
There are supports everywhere on the way down: 2000, 1980, 1950, 1920, 1860, 1830.. But sometimes the market just goes through them in a few days when it really wants to breath.
Note: it did not respect any of those resistance on the way up.
Strategically: it is only a question of money management: even if it were to hold until year/March to 2100/2150, it would crash severely after I think.
Target is 1680/1550
If vertical up, this is how it will do it:

The main rule of Elliot Wave is that Wave 3 cannot be the shortest impulse wave. In this scenario, if this were to be a 5 wave structure, wave 3 would be the shortest. Therefore, this is not a five wave structure and the thesis is incorrect. We're more likely to be putting in a major wave 3 right now.
\HOly crap about 2 weeks ago I started to notice this very same thing but using a 89 week disparity index on a 4 year weekly chart
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