Indicators are close but not quite oversold. So a little more down room then probably a reversal Monday.
Trade closed: target reached
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TLT hit my target of $101 so I'm out. SPX looks like it wants to bounce off support anyways. After a rough start I managed to make 3k plus another grand and a half this week, so I'm done. No day trades since I expect whipsaw, unless MFI or RSI goes oversold then I go long/
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ES MFI is almost oversold
Indicators aside, you still have to look at FDAX which bounced off the lows well before market open, and also support levels on the ES! chart
Like I always say, I should've gone long when I sold my puts, lol. Would have been perfect timing on TLT.
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Markets closed Monday, lol. See ya guys Tuesday unless something interesting happens this afternoon
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BTW, I have this rule that SPX doesn't leave open gaps 2 days in a row without filling the second one, usually happens that day but sometimes takes a week or two. I'm talking about the daily index, not ES.
That should explain why I flipped my puts basically after open.
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.... and the whipsaw continues, lol.
So all week I said I was bearish on TLT and when it hit support that I would be bullish, and here we are. Indicators never hit oversold but ES bounced off support. Could be yet another whipsaw day because it's options expiration.
Made some more beer money with calls, but I'm out now. See ya Tuesday.
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MFI touched oversold but RSI hasn't so gonna wait until Tuesday to make a move. Another 2 days of whipsaw I guess, because the Fed minutes will cause another one.
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I'm leaning bearish after looking at AAPL chart. Also bearish on China.
A lot of the stuff that bounced looks more like short covering, such as TLT. Everyone's looking at the same chart, saw the same thing I did.
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Still feeling bearish about China, problem is there will be 2 days of trading before our market opens Tuesday. Still might do some LI puts, they're cheap, maybe 20 contracts of OTM puts since I made 3k this week.
we get the FOMC minutes on wed, too. Did you see Buffet sold 85% of his position in TSM? Guess he's a swing trader now too. LOL
hungry_hippo
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@mc_speculator, the FOMC minutes are gonna say "DISINFLATION!", lol. Play the indicators, not your personal sentiment. You get killed that way.
mc_speculator
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@hungry_hippo, for sure, my bias overall is obviously to the downside, but I've been putting strangles on some names (F worked out well) and buying more heavily calls directionally short term via TQQQ, crypto miners. Been playing miners both ways crushed it yesterday getting MARA puts around 8.20 or something on the 1DTEs. Been in and out of AAPL, too, and GOOG took profits on this week on OTM calls up 50%.
mc_speculator
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Fed speak today still saying more rate hikes coming. I am on higher for longer island. This RE market needs to tank. Greed has gotten ridiculous, people can't afford it.
mc_speculator
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I am staying short spx (puts through june and energy) and just day / swinging these moves from support/resistance as well
hungry_hippo
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@mc_speculator, I dunno bud.... maybe RSI needs to go oversold, we get a bounce Tues afternoon, rally Wed morning then tank again? I don;t see much point in holding a position over the weekend.
mc_speculator
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@hungry_hippo, for sure, I am basically using it as a hedge against my more short term call buying and hoping to catch any big move down, if we get one, since I basically bottom ticked these. Still getting eaten up on decay but it's not terrible since it's through June. I will punt them if I have to but it's not a large position on these. like 3.5k in put contracts between some OTM Rig puts and spxu. I'm up like $400 on the spxu contracts (only 10) lol and i have 30 Rig otms that cost me like .45. so they could pay off nicely or I lose 50%
hungry_hippo
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@mc_speculator, I guess I'm leaning bearish until the AAPL Fed pump gap fills. ES MFI went oversold, but decided not to play it today. Posted AAPL plot. MFI is on def downtrend.
@hungry_hippo, kikcing myself not buying the march 140s again today....hindsight bias but as you mentioned, didn't want to hold too many positions over weekend but i am eyeballing those