Possible Outcomes on S&P500 and Trading Opportunities.

CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
I believe that market structures are a representation of market sentiment. So if I'm able to understand the current situation based on the times that happened in the past and its evolution. I can get a good idea of the possible outcomes.

In today's post, we will start by defining the current context, and then we will look for 4 situations in the past that I found with similar or same price action as the one we can observe right now.

CURRENT CONTEXT: I see an ABC pattern after a bearish impulse.





My conclusion based on these scenarios is that after the breakout of the lower trendline of the corrective structure, we tend to observe some type of pullback. A new low works well to confirm the beginning of a new bearish impulse. (as you can see on the next template)

However, on the bullish side, this is the template that I found useful to think about long opportunities.


With all the previous elements in mind, I will leave here the current context with both bullish and bearish filters.

Remember: As traders, it's not our job to forecast the next price movement. To be honest I think 99,9% of people are terrible at that. Including myself. After 3 years of consistent trading i have realized that I'm right 50% of the time (or that my forecasts are not better than flipping a coin) HOWEVER it's my job to make smart bets.

And what is a smart bet? For me, it's a situation where I know I have a 50% chance of being right, BUT if I'm right I will make 2 times what I'm risking. This approach has helped me achieve consistency by focusing on these "Smart Bets" Or High-quality situations. It's very important that you combine this with a great Risk Management that helps you avoid being knocked out when you are going through a Draw Down period. In my case, as I execute 2 setups a month on average, I use 2% to 3% of my capital on every stop loss.

Trade like a CASINO! Thanks for reading. Please feel free to share your view and charts in the comments.


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