S&P possible sell signal, but trends are mixed
So I hope you enjoyed the calm. I ended up taking my ball and playing elsewhere. I had said I had a strong sell signal on the Nasdaq going into yesterday, and so even when we were up on the day, I went short, and made my entire weekly goal on the Nasdaq. Additionally, I have that Soybean trade from last week I had talked about, and that is up 40 points for another $2000. I bring that up because at $4500 for the week, I have the option to stay out of the S&P ES! contracts for now, and may just do that.
We had no new trends form yesterday (yeah, that is how calm it was). We did end on a higher note, but clear had strong resistance trying to go higher and a push down at the end of the day. While we tried to go higher after the close, we then attempted to go lower this morning, and are basically back at break even. The 30m calls for us to go up, but has been violated. The 1hr says we should come down. The 2hr says we can go sideways, the 3/4/6hr say we should be going down, the 12hr says we should go up, and the daily says we are within range and can stay sideways. So yeah... a bit of a mixed bag at the moment.
I have a MACD Momentum sell signal appearing TODAY, but keep in mind, that is the current bar and NOT finished. So I won't be trading off of that. All in all, I may sit out for the day.
Trends into today (same as yesterday);
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4003 Downtrend (3/27/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4002 Uptrend (3/24/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 3956 Downtrend (3/24/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I mean, I suppose if we get back above that 30m ascending downtrend bar (currently at 4026) I could see some room to the upside. Not sure I'd take that trade though.
The Short Position;
A good move below 4003 might be an entry point, with stops for profit set if it goes below 4000 at 4002 in the event it fails. If I tried, this is the more likely trade I'll take.
Economic Data;
CB Consumer Confidence is really the only big deal today. Otherwise I don't expect much, and I'm not sure I expect a lot out of that.
My sentiment into today (from 4007);
Shorter Term - Neutral/Hint of Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral
Yeah, I'm basically neutral on the day. I THINK we might go lower, but I don't know that I have enough to want to take that trade. It is mostly based on where I think the macro economics of the current environment is at, but the market seems to be on a different page than I, because I think given the current conditions and valuations (currently sitting at around 18-20x valuations) we should be around 3850 at the moment. Things are just too expensive given the possible impact on future earnings. Given that, I'm going to mark this as a "Short" idea, although, again I'm about as neutral as I get going into today.
But hey, what do I know =)
Safe trading! And remember your risk management!
We had no new trends form yesterday (yeah, that is how calm it was). We did end on a higher note, but clear had strong resistance trying to go higher and a push down at the end of the day. While we tried to go higher after the close, we then attempted to go lower this morning, and are basically back at break even. The 30m calls for us to go up, but has been violated. The 1hr says we should come down. The 2hr says we can go sideways, the 3/4/6hr say we should be going down, the 12hr says we should go up, and the daily says we are within range and can stay sideways. So yeah... a bit of a mixed bag at the moment.
I have a MACD Momentum sell signal appearing TODAY, but keep in mind, that is the current bar and NOT finished. So I won't be trading off of that. All in all, I may sit out for the day.
Trends into today (same as yesterday);
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4003 Downtrend (3/27/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4002 Uptrend (3/24/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 3969 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 3956 Downtrend (3/24/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I mean, I suppose if we get back above that 30m ascending downtrend bar (currently at 4026) I could see some room to the upside. Not sure I'd take that trade though.
The Short Position;
A good move below 4003 might be an entry point, with stops for profit set if it goes below 4000 at 4002 in the event it fails. If I tried, this is the more likely trade I'll take.
Economic Data;
CB Consumer Confidence is really the only big deal today. Otherwise I don't expect much, and I'm not sure I expect a lot out of that.
My sentiment into today (from 4007);
Shorter Term - Neutral/Hint of Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral
Yeah, I'm basically neutral on the day. I THINK we might go lower, but I don't know that I have enough to want to take that trade. It is mostly based on where I think the macro economics of the current environment is at, but the market seems to be on a different page than I, because I think given the current conditions and valuations (currently sitting at around 18-20x valuations) we should be around 3850 at the moment. Things are just too expensive given the possible impact on future earnings. Given that, I'm going to mark this as a "Short" idea, although, again I'm about as neutral as I get going into today.
But hey, what do I know =)
Safe trading! And remember your risk management!
Comment:
I cashed out my soybeans trade. It reached the target goal I wanted, so I'd rather not have to pay attention to it. If you went Long with me on that one and are staying in, best of luck!