The red line is the historical resistance. It stopped the ES back on June 05-09. It stopped the ES again this week. Had it not held, the next resistance would've been 3330 which was the February gap.
I was getting a little worried there since the resistance was starting to breakdown. However, it held in the end. I am not confident that this resistance will hold for a third time.
VIX and VVIX was giving a warning for the past few days about a pullback. Well, the pullback came.
Keep in mind. With high liquidity levels, supports below may be stronger than traders think. I am not expecting another March 2020 crash at all. Market internals are stronger now than in late February.
Besides, here is a critical thinking question. How many shorts/bears do you think are trapped below? How many of them are waiting to get out of their underwater shorts? That's why I think there may be a bounce from below.
I like your thoughts. I too have been starting to project the drop isn't going to be as heavy as many of us of have been thinking for awhile now. Letting off steam will ultimately help feed more pumptardness before we really crash later on. I think we could be red for this next week though... Strongest support is down a ways... Curious what you're looking at for bounce location?
Itsallsotiresome
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@farmerisland, Will it crash? Eventually. When? Don't know. Don't care to guess. I'll get it wrong 9/10 if I try to time it. I see supports holding, I go long. I see the VIX about to make a run for it, I go short. I'm what's called "perma-neutral."