I got stopped out - badly on the sell off that started Sunday night on the ES and the NQ - lots did.
Ok - Well we know what happened with Evergrande story.
So my thought was buy lower and get 'em back and then some.
As some of you will know China was on a National Holiday till Wednesday night and no one knew exactly what would happen at the Asian open.
I took a long ES Futures after the close Wednesday at about 4340 - There was pretty good sell off at the close of about 25 points.
Then to watch it go against me - almost 20 points. I closed the position with the uncertainty I continued to read in the mainstream media.
Before I could get back in - the ES shot up 45 points.
One of the smartest guys out there offering and incredible amount free content devoid of BS is Jeff Snider follow him on: twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP - it really is public service.
I had read his post that Evergrande was old news and nothing burger - before I ever bought this position however the market but the uncertainly I read about made me second guess myself.
Regardless the MSM was not our friend here - which I knew of course.
As a layman relying on on my will, technical understanding, and some understanding of macro economics I can honestly you literally cannot listen to what you hear in the news - which is saddening.
I'm angry that I sold at the bottom - but I'm more angry that Evergrande was a complete BS story to tank the market so Investment Bankers can continue to do what they do.
I will buy on the next pullback - which ideally would be at the point of control at 4383-ish - that said there an upward algo running and the best we might be able to get for the time being is the low 4420's for the time boing.
As Evergrande is nothing burger - there really isn't any reason that music stops now. Sure the Fed is talking taper - November however this is still September. All that said - anything of course is possible.
Whatever you do - don't make any trading decisions based what you read in the news. I'm posting this publicly to remind myself not to make this mistake again.
Most of what I post is personal diary that I share - I get it wrong sometimes.
There are sparks brilliance once in while - and I find being wrong like having to ask for directions - to be avoided whenever possible.
Well don't feel too badly, we've all been there. On Friday I loaded up.. on Calls! Sure it would BOUNCE!!
Took the hit on open and nursed my wounds for an hour watching puts grow, finally started buying MORE CALLS!!
During the course of trading on Monday, after the calls are in half... OMFG CLOSE IT!!!)
LOL so ofc we get stopped out exactly when we needed to open an entry position.
The calls I dumped have since more than quadrupled...
Maximilianned
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@DaddySawbucks, I was thinking about you actually - you told me about the position you took.
They screwed the market (and us) - made billions. Charts tell the truth.
I waited till Tuesday before closing - now of course I'd be green if I did nothing. One thing they understand in spades -MAX pain. They have that down to science.
Closed my RTY trade as they moved value up - which is good because its up.
DaddySawbucks
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@Maximilianned, LOL , I watched paralyzed as SPX fell -127 pips and thought, "Damn, calls are a bargain now!! Probably an entry..."
DOH!!
Yes this is how money is made, force the price down and buy it back up. So it will happen again, soon IMO.
This is criminal - they released fake news, tanked the market and bought it back. No one gets it what was done here - there should be charges, but there won't be. Its plausible deniability.
Unless you have someone like Jeff Snider on speed dial - how the F do you know?
That's why I think we're still going up - this wasn't real.
One thing is for sure they have flipped the script.
DaddySawbucks
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@Maximilianned, Price behaves independently of news and global events. These will shock or rock the markets for a day or two but are transient. Real price action is driven by fundamentals- value, earnings, growth and fiscal environment, which has been Goldilocks.
Agreed - really true in currencies where news spikes mean nothing, however when you tell the world there is another Leman Brothers moment coming yeah that give the market a real pause.
Cause that's what it takes to move the market they way they did.
That's why I say its criminal - after all if you didn't believe the hype why would you sell your calls?
Market also goes up because currencies are being debased too - making everything worth more except gold.
Which is funny as its down for the last decade - until they are ready to make a move. Then one day Gold is $4000 an oz.
Took the hit on open and nursed my wounds for an hour watching puts grow, finally started buying MORE CALLS!!
During the course of trading on Monday, after the calls are in half... OMFG CLOSE IT!!!)
LOL so ofc we get stopped out exactly when we needed to open an entry position.
The calls I dumped have since more than quadrupled...