Kumowizard
Long

Spain shd be traded similarly to Italy. Sell ES10y / Buy GE10y

34 2 2
I have been following BTP/Bund yield spread for a while. I thought maybe I should check Spain over Germany, so I did a quick check on Bono/Bund yield spread.

My first thoughts and reactions:
1. LOL, OMG! :-D Spanish 10y yield only 1,02 % higher above Bund??? And it is still trading at all time low???
2. Why not trade it right now? Short Bono / Long Bund            
3. Bond investors have completely lost their minds, or did Central Banks , or both? :-)

Technical picture:

Weekly:
- Price (yield spread) is still at historic all time low at 1 %, quite far below equilibrium level (marked by Kijun and Senkou B around 1,30). For this reason Ichimoku is stillbearish, but first key supp/res levels are not so far above: 1,23 % and 1,30. The real key level would be 1,50, and if you look back on the chart, you can quickly understand why is 150 bps             so important! If things go wrong in Eurozone, there would be a huge open space above up to 350 or even higher!
- haDelta and DMO             have built quite some positive divergence during last 2-2,5 months.
- Heikin-Ashi may give a possible swing buy signal this week. ECB policy will be decisive.
- EWO             shows some positive divergence too

Daily:
- Ichimoku back to neutral, with bullish bias ahead in forward Kumo!
- Heikin-Ashi is swing bullish , price is above Kijun Sen
- EWO             back to zero -> neutral, not bearish any more
- MACD has positive divergence and a cross up (remark: quite some noise of crosses recently, histogram should confirm later)

Any more question regarding risk/reward?


I'm not a big spread trader. What are the two best instruments for straight short position in Spanish bonds... and would you happen to know the symbol used by IB... Interactive Brokers?

But I like the idea! Makes no sense that given Spain's problems they should be anywhere near the German Bund.
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BTW, we can already see the Fed pulling back a little in terms of money supply growth. There's always a delay... but the longer term implications, if continued, cannot be positive.
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