optionflow

$ES_F #ES_F $SPY $VIX - ES Daily chart & thoughts

CME_MINI:ESH2016   E-MINI S&P 500 FUTURES (MAR 2016)
1
ES tagged R2 on daily and straight into a confluence of 61.8 fib levels. In addition, we see a move above the 1.27 fib trend extension very similar to the October move, which cleared just above the 1.27 before a retest then break down.

Trin spike to 6.0 indicating major selling pressure, which was not reflected in price action. It then fell to .38 as if there was no selling pressure at all. From my perspective, this means only buyers; therefore, a whole lot of supply should selling start. (Manipulation suspect as well)

Thursday saw ~$2.1B in outflows and early estimates show an additional -$400M from Friday. (I suspect more) Also, large DP (Dark Pool) prints continued to roll in. We saw 3M shares traded above the ask, which indicates selling. I'm sure more late prints will show up Monday. $198.21 -> $193.59 were the next level where massive prints showed up on Tues. Ironically, Tuesday was the day TRIN spiked to 6.0, and the prints were at $193.59. Also, to be noted DP's were selling into every test of the upper trend range beginning at $192.90.

Friday closed with $19M in put premium and based on option volume , 196P's and above saw the most action.

I anticipate weakness into Monday targeting the 1950 level into the next couple of days. This will be an interesting week with FOMC as well.

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