First i wan't to state that, as labeled in the chart, it's all about the monday open!
The ideea of the 5 wave formation came to me a few months ago tradingview.com/v/GN0sDY2w/. It went beatifully. Now we have a possible abc, i say possible because we have to see if it will rally.
Now let's take an indepth look at the chart. The first wave starts from the bottom line of the broadening formation. From that point, the spanish stocks rallied sharply, together with Europe. The road to the 10000 psychological level took 5 months, forming a 5 wave formation.. You can see labeled the fibonacci percentages, which makes this chart even more beautiful and predictible. When the 10000 level was reached, a corrective move started in a flag formation, forming an abc (probable c). The flag was broken at a point, but right after that we had a shooting star which warned us things aren't looking good. Now we have a dragonfly doji which points to a reverseal. This long candle penetrated some very strong support levels (weekly support, daily support, fib supports and the flag bottom line) and closed above all of them. A look at the histogram points out that even though the price moved below point a, the histogram didn't go lower, meaning that the bears are losing power.
Now we have to wait for a strong open, which would be the entry signal. First target would be 10000
Comments
vlad.adrian
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Target almost reached, worked exactly as planned. Closed earlier today, 02.01.2014, after we started moving down near resistance. Situation doesn't look good in Europe
Forex-Social
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As soon as I opened my position it started to fall....
I don't know if laugh or I cry. =)
vlad.adrian
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well as long as we stay under 9370 we should be ok. i have my stop loss there. if we go under 9370 i will wait for another buy signal. Use the nikkei, dax, cac40, sp500 to filter out false signals. The stox in Europe usually rise together.
Forex-Social
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;)
Did you manage to get the "big break'?
I didn't it was 6AM where I live.. but, I got in later.
Thanks a lot.
vlad.adrian
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hello. i closed my opened position with a very small loss after it went under 9370. I entered back on the 19th, the day when we had the big candle, but this time i entered on the BBVA so i can have a bigger stop. I'm waiting now for 10000!!
knock
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great chart! It seems the ETF EWP does not track IBEX in perfect ratio? Do you also analyze EWP? Thanks.
vlad.adrian
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No, i had no ideea about this ETF but i glanced at it now and to me it seems that it actually does track the Spanish index really well, probably a bit better than the BBVA from BATS. The only difference that i notice in the ETF are the bigger gaps, that's probably because it has a smaller trading program. If u can't afford the spanish index than I would go with the ETF. Thank you!
Forex-Social
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Thank you for all your tips!
vlad.adrian
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You're welcome! Good luck!
Forex-Social
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I've just lost the option to open it today! =(
I was thinking, exactly because I don't have enough capital to place my stop loss there... what do you think?
It still a good option for tomorrow, right? Maybe I can enter on a "small correction"...