In continuation to yesterday signal of an imminent decline in the e-Mini S&P500, we are now witness to that plummeting fall, and today, we get to possibly witness ES Tumbles-Part Deux.
The technical background that predicated the plummeting fall yesterday was provided by a Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW") whose features called for an abandonment of any bullish consideration, given that the WW has a reliable history of delivering the blows, much like a coiled animal ready to pounce.
As per definition for this pattern, the 1-4 Line is the profit line, but also one that often acts as a significant counter-trend trigger line.
Compared to the model, which yesterday was offering 1992 as a possible target, today the targets are refined as follows:
1 - TG-1 = 1987.00 - 05 SEP 2014 = Quant-Target; Tends to cause retracements in the Fib order of 0.38.2 to 0.618
and
2 - TG-Lo = 1984.75 - 05 SEP 2014 = Qual-Target: Associated with actual price reversal, in the order of Fib-hyperextension, such that new structural levels are carved at 1.414 to 1.618, or a complete reversal occurs.
In the case of this benchmark, reversal to new structural (historical) levels remain possible, considering that "a cluster of central banking investors has become major players on world equity markets", per FT reports.
OVERALL:
As we watch this pattern unfold to the downside, one would do well to keep an eye on the 1-4 Profit Line, and be open to the possibility of a surprise rallying up to the pattern's 1-3-5 Line underbelly, and perhaps to loftier highs, courtesy of the central banks.
If you remain unconvinced about this WW pattern, see what it did and setting to do with the Nikkei, here: tradingview.com/v/1l026BJo/
And for good measure, see what this WW is setting up to do with the Gold, here: tradingview.com/v/HJ5t8w6p/ .
Cheers,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
The WW has a way to consume time as soon as price touches its 1-4 profit line. At time, price would bounce right off of it, and in other times, it would literally stick to it, sliding one candle at a time sideways, until it is ready to reverse.
One aspect of this "sticking around" price behavior is that it is very much identifiable in terms of patterns, especially the sort that is associated with a pre-reversal exhaustion, as in the Diagonal Triangle (the End Diagontal type).
Worth seeing what will occur here, as price is moving back up a bit, and the targets remains unanswered.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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05 SEP 2014 - Worst Case Scenario:
Running a worst case scenario off of the model. Results? ...
From Twitter:
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ESU2014 chart: Worst Case Scenario?
The WW has a way to consume time as soon as price touches its 1-4 profit line. At time, price would bounce right off of it, and in other times, it would literally stick to it, sliding one candle at a time sideways, until it is ready to reverse.
One aspect of this "sticking around" price behavior is that it is very much identifiable in terms of patterns, especially the sort that is associated with a pre-reversal exhaustion, as in the Diagonal Triangle (the End Diagontal type).
Worth seeing what will occur here, as price is moving back up a bit, and the targets remains unanswered.
Cheers,
David Alcindor