Today were taking a look at ETC for two primary reasons:
(FA) The incoming callisto fork.
(TA) Some beautiful examples of market geometry, seen more often as crypto markets become more liquid and behavior normalizes (atleast a little lol).
So first and foremost, theres the ever obvious effect of a fork in ETC's near future. After the all out chaos we saw in recent days from the BTCP fork, it's likely many investors are a bit on edge with another airdrop right around the corner. But lets remember one key factor here: this isnt ZCL! In my opinion the ETC team is much more solid and the callisto project holds much more promise than the bungle of a fork that BTCP became in its final days. As with any incoming fork, I believe It's a fair assumption we will see higher volatility in the days to come, providing a wonderful market for us day traders to skim some solid profits off the hype.
Remember though, if you're riding profits, get out before the snapshot and impending landslide that will inevitably follow. If you're riding out the fork for callisto on the other hand, hold on for dear life and hope you can transfer onto an exchange quick enough to dump if you're not already long on ETC.
Now on to the technicals for the near future:
Things made a nice turn early this morning and seem to have gone channel bound for the time being..
Price is officially above 48 EMA.
Rapidly approaching 24% fib retrace.
Possible wave 3 rally of 5 wave cycle as we break out from the channel AND the 24% retrace.
MACD is forming consistent, sequential higher swing lows.
MACD was converging a bit, but on a steep incline, and things seem geared up to make a nice bounce and continue upward.
STOCH & STOCH RSI bullish and above 80, hopefully we'll be playing around up here for a while as we approach the 24% retrace
In short, i think things are looking good for some continued upward movement for the days to come as we get closer to the callisto snapshot block height. It should be noted though that I wouldnt be surprised to rebound off the upper channel resistance and then again off its support before the final rally off above our 24% fib retrace.
Also, just something I wanted to point out as I love market geometry:
This head and shoulders is the perfect example off pattern interruption and continuation. Although it had a rather clear trend formation, there was a minor aberration above the neckline at the right shoulder which may have convinced some people the formation was incomplete, but we can clearly see that after the minor correction upwards, the pattern "resumes" and takes an impulsive tank downward.
The other thing I wanted to point out is the beauty of that initial double bottom turning point we just encountered. Our prior overhead resistance during the down cycle become a new support for ETC, and the rebound from that single tap was absolutely beautiful!
Good luck, happy trading, and safe forking fellow cryptoheads!
*** Note that the MACD RSI crossover strategy I've written has the RSI hidden, and that the earning results are irrelevant as it used for cleaning up major trends NOT buys and sells. *** The dual Stochastic/Stochastic RSI source code can be found on my page if you're in need of a simple space saving indicator!
This analysis is meant for purely educational purposes, and whether you choose to trade on it or not is entirely on you! Remember, TA is neither investment advice nor a guaranteed science, but rather an informed attempt at predicting future movement based on historical AND emerging patterns!
Austin Doyle CTO Crypto Playhouse
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I just wanted to point out, that while it did take downward, this is somewhat expected as the leg up occured later than my original wave prediction, and rather than testing the channel bounds on their own, it test the fib retrace AND the channel, and was unable to break through, thus sending it into free fall.
Also, I really do believe that the utter catastrophe that was the BTCP fork has a loooooot of would be "fork investors" shaking in their boots.
@afreet77, Always glad to help! If you're ever in need of an analysis drop me a line, I love breaking down TA on new coins.
mycoinmoon
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crypto do you have the ability to analyze the price movements of say lite coin or z cash days before the airdrop date and the movements thereafter? I think it would pertain to ETC. I have not had the time to do so but I played LTC with the idea I would bail right before the drop. Sadly for me the move up was days before the drop. I only lost 1-2% but it was certainly not what I was expecting.
cryptoplayhouse
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@mycoinmoon, I actually participated in the litecoincash and bitcoingold fork/airdrops. Its rather common to see prices of the prefork coins jump prior to the snapshot, then slide off by as much as 30%. The bitcoin private fork however swung a 90% drop off post fork because of people unaware that ZCL was essentially being abandoned and that it would plummet. I think this has alot of people scared so theyre swinging a sell off of etc so they dont get caught in a post snapshot windfall as the price plummets (assuming it does). Realistically though ETC has more lasting intrinsic value than ZCL since the dev team migrated projects.
mycoinmoon
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I do like how clean your TA is and you provide some FA as well. Dont know why others do not put this in their analysis.
Ox_3
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Thanks for the post! Very informative. Keep it up.
cryptoplayhouse
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@mikeymikecpt, Thanks man, keep an eye out for stuff; my goal is to publish atleast one crypto chart daily, and one traditional market analysis + a proprietary indicator each week!