The rise and fall of ETH

POLONIEX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
784 8 19
Eth is not immune to bubbles, I think the comparison to MT Gox with bitcoin             is a good one, except this is arguably much worse. The situation was completely exacerbated when the community (term can be used loosely) decided to do a bailout, and Hard Fork. This was not the right move for a lot of reasons I won't get into, now we have two competing chains, no matter how badly anyone wants it--ETH Classic will not go away anytime soon, pretty much all major exchanges picked it up, there is investor interest, developers are slowly coming in, and hash rate is growing, at least so far. Earlier today I saw it had 3x the volume of ETH HF. But this is not about promoting ETH Classic, whether that is a good risk/return investment is much much more debatable than the mess that has formed with ETH (HF).

You might say classic is a scam, its blah blah (even though it's unequivocally not a "scam"), I don't care, the point is it will not totally die any time soon. There are people dedicated to working on it for their own reasons, whether you agree with that or not. So now here we are, there are two competing chains, this has created an undeniable atmosphere of uncertainty in the market. Markets do not like uncertainty. The ETH Foundation is under heavy criticism, claims of lawsuits, etc. They obviously did not expect classic to gain any traction. Exchanges are being drained from replay attacks, ETH classic has stated they will not HF to prevent this and its on the other chain to do so.

This whole thing is a total mess, sentiment is down the tubes at least for the forseeable future. I am not saying ETH is dead, but I am saying it is a very good comparison to MT Gox-at a minimum. Bitcoin             survived that and was made stronger at the end of the day, but let's not forget that it suffered a drop from over a $1000 to as low as $160 in a long bear market (of course you can argue--wasn't solely b/c of gox but you get the point)

You can do all kinds of sophisticated TA, but I simply look at this view and look at the first top (rise to ATH's around .038 or so) and I see that ever since that point all we have had is lower highs and lower lows ever since. More close up in the 1d chart it is starting to look like we will go down soon, and if so this will REKT the 1 week candle. If sideways the next few days, 1 week closes a doji which does not inspire confidence. There is strong support at .015 or so, but when that goes it's a wrap, this is just a guess or road map, maybe .015 will hold longer but I think eventually it is going down.

This is also interesting, check out this comparison of Bitcoin             around the end of 2013 going into 2014 compared with ETH/BTC             right now:

Who knows, maybe things can change, but in my opinion this is just the beginning of a bear market for at least the next 3-6 months. Also important to note this is the ETH/BTC             ratio, I am very bullish on btc             over the next 6 months, so if btc             rises, ETH USD does not necessarily have to drop for this scenario. Gluck.
Comment: From original idea: "There is strong support at .015 or so, but when that goes it's a wrap, this is just a guess or road map, maybe .015 will hold longer but I think eventually it is going down. " So it seems this held true, and this call was early, but I don't think it will be far off ultimately. I won't get into all the continued drama and HF's, but the fundamentals continue to deteriorate for ETH. And key support from this pennant just broke: I still feel confident this general idea and bear market will come to fruition. Early is not wrong, and full disclosure my ideas are just that and not necessarily suggestions for trades, do your own research and use appropriate stops and trade your own style. Gluck!
You nailed the bear runs, hope you also rode the rally.
btc_joe IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, haha unfortunately for the most part I was a stubborn ETH hater. Too biased I guess, gotta take a page out of your book. I caught a few pieces of it but was too skeptical of it. Oh well, cant win em all. : )
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@btc_joe, yep, I missed the top, but sure as heck didn't miss this signal to short here. I think odds are very good.
The rally was fantastic, I saw there were far too many bears, gloating after the decline post fork, and it was worth a try...then as the hype grew, with the EEA, it was clear it could trigger a monthly rally, so yeah...we rode that thing. Most of the gains happened until before it topped, then it became tricky, now it's clear it was tricky cause it had already topped. It's good, as time passes, it becomes clearer and clearer, until a good opportunity with defined and low risk presents itself like now.
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btc_joe IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, well said.
Stop it. Trading is not for you.
fail fail fail fail
always fail in your predictions!
Why you continue to post these shit?
btc_joe AndreyDrogal
Hey man, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and try to respond as if you are not a complete troll. Did you actually read the description/analysis? Probably not. Here is a relevant part for you:

"There is strong support at .015 or so, but when that goes it's a wrap, this is just a guess or road map, maybe .015 will hold longer but I think eventually it is going down. "

So yes, the price tested .015 (fell below for a flash) and bounced nicely. Is this surprising to me? Not really. I actually traded it and took profits there, as I mentioned this was just a roadmap, not necessarily a suggestion for a trade. So, you seem to be convinced this overall view has "fail fail fail fail" 'ed...I would ask you, why are you so sure? The price has not put in an new high. If and when that happens, okay then maybe this general view is off, as I stated if things fundamentally change (and at the moment eth classic is dumping) then sure you can throw this one out, but i'm not convinced yet. Another quote:

"Who knows, maybe things can change, but in my opinion this is just the beginning of a bear market for at least the next 3-6 months."

Anyway, I make no claims of being an expert here, my analysis helps me to trade, I make a lot of charts, a lot will be wrong, I certainly do not trade every chart I make, they help give me an idea of how to trade and when to change my opinion. I publish only b/c i figure it *could help others, maybe not idk, but my increasing number of followers seems to suggest it does. Feel free to click the unfollow button, as i'm sure you are a real "expert" unlike me and don't need my analysis, as evidenced by your many charts have to offer contradicting my opinions, oh wait, no published charts for you that's strange LOLOLOLOL. But again, thanks for taking the time for your thoughtful constructive criticism, and offering your own opinion of what is to come /s
That's a chart against BTC so it will depend a bit on BTC price but I totally agree ETH will slow-bleed against USD and EUR for quite a while. The only thing that train-wreck clown-car has going for it right now is a rather huge amount of short interest which will keep the price from falling like a rock.
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