The main question I am asking myself is whether we are still in wave 3 (up to around 0.19) or entering the corrective wave 4 (down to around 0.08). More details here:
ETHUSD growth from ETHBTC history. Have we completed wave 3?
We are currently in a very interesting place. On the larger timeframe ( TM ) we are in a bull run and are creating a . On the shorter TF, since 1 Feb, we are in a correction creating a .
Whilst I have a bias on ETHBTC medium term, I do not want to guess if we are in wave 3 or wave 4. Usually the longer term horizon wins out, but that doesn't mean it will this time. So I wait for the trend to be confirmed.
Still in wave 3
- We move up from here, rejecting the . I will enter a trade assuming we will continue the upward leg and eventual breakout of the . The target for this, based on the height of the flag pole, would be my wave 3 target from my separate historic analysis here. This would also coincided with the magic flipping figure of 0.173 which would probably be a good place to retrace in wave 4. I love it when TA converges!
- We break down out of the local and medium term but quickly find support on the diagonal . I will enter a trade at the bounce back up at around 0.095.
In wave 4
- We break down out of the local and medium term and either find support at the 1D 50EMA and 0.382 Bull (0.087) or the 0.5 Fib of Bull 2 (0.08). I will enter a trade at a bounce on one of these levels.
Still in wave 3
- We break down out of the local bear flag and medium term bull flag but quickly find support on the diagonal trend line . I will enter a trade at the bounce back up at around 0.095.
In wave 4
- We break down out of the local bear flag and medium term bull flag and either find support at the 1D 50EMA and 0.382 Bull (0.087) or the 0.5 Fib of Bull 2 (0.08). I will enter a trade at a bounce on one of these levels.
I'll adjust my view as we move through the coming period, but unless the market tells me otherwise, I feel most comfortable trading based on what the the two historic moves seen in Super Cycle wave 1 & 3 show me.
If history repeats itself we would then see a long period (170 days) of contraction in ETHBTC price and/or we might enter an ABC or start a new set of 5 impulse waves. However, this doesn't mean that ETHUSD will go down in this period. It could be when BTCUSD price explodes to the $50k I have previously forecast and so ETHUSD holds or increases but drops relative to ETHBTC.