imkeshav
Short

ETHBTC ratio - 1 last drop (50%) likely

POLONIEX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
Similar to the macro count on ETHUSD (see linked post), ETCUSD , BTCUSD I consider that 1st wave from bottom is completed in 2017 with 1-5 waves marked in blue.

Note that it was a 5th wave extension considering the subwave4 dropped to 0.618. So the guideline for correction is a drop till subwave2 (green line) of 4th wave.

The correction has already retraced to 0.5 Fib (green arrow) and bounced (we tracked this in linked post), but I think it was a corrective bounce and also we got a rejection from the red channel top (red arrow)

So unless we breakout of the red channel, my bias is bearish and expecting a drop towards the green line which also happens to be the median line of the channel. This assumes that the final drop will be the 5th subwave of the red (C)

This bearish assumption also aligns with my bearish outlook for ETHUSD where targets are $50-$15 as detailed in the linked post
Comment: I replied to a question in March that I will change my bearish bias if we broke-out of the downtrend channel

Almost 2 months later, we saw an attempt to breakout of the channel, which is now rejected (red arrow)

More obvious on a monthly chart

RSI is also less than 50


On the short term, we are unable to breakout of a channel, confirmation of a drop is below the median line of the blue channel

Comments

Maybe it was about to break out and the 12th of March took it by surprise? We could see another attempt soon?
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imkeshav toymachien3
@toymachien3, Sure, its possible
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