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macrobear
Mar 4, 2018 12:26 AM

ETH Short Short

(ETHBTC+ETHBTC+ETHBTC+ETHBTC)/4Bitfinex

Description

Technicals:
H&S top pattern
failed new ATH

Fundamentals:
new ICO projects slowing down
- decrease of demand for ETH through burn or forced hodl
- currently 40B built on ETH, which have caused a massiv demand for ETH
velocity of inflows into cryptos slowing down (aka speculators are drying out) (short-mid term, 6-24month)

Trade active

just to clarify I am short ETH/USD pair not BTC pair, ergo I am shorting ETH and BTC

the stoploss (SL) should be at the right shoulder (RS)

updated:

Trade active

looking good

also I read a interesting 2.order effect caused through the coming ICO/securities regulation today. It will decrease the demand for tokens and therefore demand for Ethereum extremly. Also token holders might want to wait after decisions are made and more certainty comes back. If that looks prospers then the scaling debate aka PoS or not is back on the table. I think there is soo much uncertainty awaiting for ETH that the it will be reflected in the price.

Comment

better chart:

Trade active

just saw that the exchanges volume is highly dominated in USD (60% of all volume), therefore I need to set a target in USD terms. I will choose one that sits close to the last high and the followed month sideways trend.

target in USD
362$

target in BTC
5.1M sat

Trade closed: target reached

362$ target reached, I close my position.
Comments
macrobear
just saw that the exchanges volume is highly dominated in USD (60% of all volume), therefore I need to set a target in USD terms. I will choose one that sits close to the last high and the followed month sideways trend.

target in USD
362$

target in BTC
5.1M sat
macrobear
small fundamental thoughts/factors through twitter-reading
- quality of ICO's rapidly decreasing ( debatably a post mania phenomenon: twitter.com/chriscoins1/status/970021868311728128)
- ETH long awaited switch to POS very unlikely to happen / off-chain scalability highly debated

I have not listed any bull arguments aka risk, will try to find some different views in the next days
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