From May 2016 - December 2016 ETH dropped ~78% vs BTC
From June 2017 to December 2017 ETH dropped ~ 85% vs BTC
From May 2018 - present level ETH dropped ~33% vs BTC
Hence, bottoming at current levels would be a cyclical abnormality based on the last two cycle drops from spring/summer - December.
BOTTOM LINE, I see one of two things happening here. We are supported at these levels and the ratio reverses, or we are bound to breakdown.
MY LAST MAJOR ETHBTC ANALYSIS:
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We have about 7 days to see how price will support the eth to btc ratio. I continue to believe the .054 area is the significant point where BUYERS will come in. Even if it is broken it does not mean it is over for eth in relation to btc, as capitulation could just run prices down and reverse. This is why watching the weekly close is so important, and even more important, the weekly close this week will also be a MONTHLY close! So there is no question that we are approaching extreme significance on all time frames. Chance of rebounding from this level are greater than 50%. In terms of USD, I expect prices to increase rather than ether simply outperforming in terms of btc and losing usd value. The key level for ETH to break is 515. 515 is similar to what 6800 was for Bitcoin. It doesn't mean a bottom (as breaking 6800 for btc doesn't make it a bottom either), but it does mean higher prices are likely to be reached until the next major level. ETH is a great proxy for alts. So if there is a rebound in the ratio then expect alts to have a recovery. Historically this has been the case.
What worries me about the data is the inconsistency of movement. I think there is a pretty reasonable chance at some point the price of Ether will breakdown against Bitcoin and this trendline will no longer support the ratio. Although happening in the next week seems highly unlikely to me since we have not tested the trendline since December. The clue would be one retest, then another retest following it with minimal recovery. We are not there yet..
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Again, we have 7 days
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7 days later... we hit support. Watch level closely
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MAJOR SUPPORT IS BROKEN. VERY BAD FOR ETHER
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First target of .025 approaching... The chart gave a fair warning if you interpreted the ratio correctly!!
So why does the eth/btc ratio is getting smaller. Is ETH getting cheaper or BTC getting overbought?
I think the second one because ETH is actually following the long term uptrend perfectly, not like bitcoin. The bitcoin price jumped too fast and cannot sustain anymore. Since the btc price is still in the bearish downtrend with a cyclical uptrends every 2 month or so, the present uptrend should be stopped at around 8300 and start curve down and eventually enter another full bear market. This will lead to the ETH/BTC ratio to go ipagain in a week or so.
Lanmar
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@tylenisbobas, eth is in big trouble. It is as simple as that. I do not have a big clue how low prices can get, but don't underestimate the significance of this break. $150 area or lower is possible
I think the second one because ETH is actually following the long term uptrend perfectly, not like bitcoin. The bitcoin price jumped too fast and cannot sustain anymore. Since the btc price is still in the bearish downtrend with a cyclical uptrends every 2 month or so, the present uptrend should be stopped at around 8300 and start curve down and eventually enter another full bear market. This will lead to the ETH/BTC ratio to go ipagain in a week or so.