ETH? YES. ALTSEASON? NO. SWITCH TO ETH UNTIL 8TH OF FEBRUARY
These days in which Bitcoin is thinking about its next direction, ETH has broken the 0.034 level within a range holding since 2018, which can signal an inversion of the trend of ETH vs BTC, at least in the short term. I think it is risky to hold btc now (without a mental stop loss at least) and makes a lot of sense to switch the gains to the 2nd biggest crypto.
Why ETH?
I do not consider it as an ALTCOIN in the strict sense of the word, and it is undoubtedly the second crypto in the market, showing a multiyear resilience to adversity.
Also, the cycles on ETH are typically shifted with respect to the BTC ones. In January 2018, BTC was already -50% while Eth reached its ATH.
Why an Altseason is not likely?
Many of the new guys have witnessed the huge gain of the last few days on some cryptos and may state that we already are in the altseason. Of course, there are 8000+ coins around, and the best of them can have a momentaneous pump due to some release or momentaneous hype. However, I refer to altseason as a distributed and homogeneous growth of pretty much all the cryptos for a 2-3 weeks time at least. And I doubt it could happen this time. Indeed:
- altseasons usually happen when btc is relatively flat, not in a bull run. Therefore, unless you believe that 42,000 was the Bull run high, the uptrend will resume and alts will inevitably suffer.
- the last bull run in 2017 does not provide enough info about alt behavior as we cam from a moment in which the dominance was approx 90%, not many alts were in the market (just 20% of the one we have now). Therefore, we are in 2 completely different moments. If we want to use past data anyway, alts exploded AFTER the bull run. When BTC was rising after the halving, dominance INCREASED.
- At this moment, BTC will either resume the uptrend or fall to 20k area. In either case, alts will suffer. Of course, a stalling situation can last for a few days, but we can wake up badly in we are overinvested in altcoins.
Eth is a good tradeoff in this moment. And let's monitor the dominance as I believe we just retrace to break up above 73%.
One last thing. BE CAREFUL OF THE 8TH OF FEBRUARY, as CME will introduce futures. Check what BTC price did once futures were introduced on the 17th Dec,2017
Why ETH?
I do not consider it as an ALTCOIN in the strict sense of the word, and it is undoubtedly the second crypto in the market, showing a multiyear resilience to adversity.
Also, the cycles on ETH are typically shifted with respect to the BTC ones. In January 2018, BTC was already -50% while Eth reached its ATH.
Why an Altseason is not likely?
Many of the new guys have witnessed the huge gain of the last few days on some cryptos and may state that we already are in the altseason. Of course, there are 8000+ coins around, and the best of them can have a momentaneous pump due to some release or momentaneous hype. However, I refer to altseason as a distributed and homogeneous growth of pretty much all the cryptos for a 2-3 weeks time at least. And I doubt it could happen this time. Indeed:
- altseasons usually happen when btc is relatively flat, not in a bull run. Therefore, unless you believe that 42,000 was the Bull run high, the uptrend will resume and alts will inevitably suffer.
- the last bull run in 2017 does not provide enough info about alt behavior as we cam from a moment in which the dominance was approx 90%, not many alts were in the market (just 20% of the one we have now). Therefore, we are in 2 completely different moments. If we want to use past data anyway, alts exploded AFTER the bull run. When BTC was rising after the halving, dominance INCREASED.
- At this moment, BTC will either resume the uptrend or fall to 20k area. In either case, alts will suffer. Of course, a stalling situation can last for a few days, but we can wake up badly in we are overinvested in altcoins.
Eth is a good tradeoff in this moment. And let's monitor the dominance as I believe we just retrace to break up above 73%.
One last thing. BE CAREFUL OF THE 8TH OF FEBRUARY, as CME will introduce futures. Check what BTC price did once futures were introduced on the 17th Dec,2017
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