MarcelV
Short

Fear & overreaction? Off to Goblin Town!

POLONIEX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
Hi all!

We are in crazy times. The unbreakable trendline has been breached and many people are claiming that new uptrend is starting for ETH. What a wonderful time to open a short at a crazy price ^^

Market participants have succumbed to fear & overreacted (especially shorters). The DAO spam has probably blinded many, but the real reason price got this high was due to short squeeze & margin liquidations + chart painting to finish Bull Flag .

FA:
  • Slock.it The DAO has cooled. First it was 100k / hour, now it's ~ 2-10k / hour, 5k avg.
  • Too much anticipation of buy pressure on ETH due to The DAO -> it will not sustain, forget figures such as 5 million ether. It will be max 2 million ether.
  • BTC Relay allows for currency-agnostic usage of Ethereum blockchain & DAPPs ( Bitcoin , Doge, ...). ETH token will lose it's main intrinsic value (being the requirement to enter DAPPs world).
    Vitalik himself has numerous times stated that Ethereum is the future, yet Ether is not a storage of value, just "gas".
  • Digix DAO will start selling ETH. We just don't know when, yet.
  • The DAO will start selling ETH too, and from a pump will become our fuel to goblin town. We just don't know when, yet.
  • Bitcoin community has yet again been a victim to chaos & FUDs today. Will the real Nakamoto please stand up? We all know the story... but what's important, there hasn't been a strong dump. And there usually is. Why not today? Given the fact that Gavin Andresen had his committer rights revoked, etc... we can only state that the underlying market structure of Bitcoin is strong and thus Bitcoin is a buy. -> BTC price will rise soon. Expect negative impact on eth/xbt price.

I believe that BTC Relay will bring Ether token price down a lot over the coming weeks. It allows using Ethereum without the need to own Ether.

Find a spot to short eth you are comfortable with. Some more confirmations would be wanted from TA point of view before entering a position, unless you are seasoned trader. For explanation, see chart.

A bounce is expected once hitting the red trendline . Once its broken, it is OTE             short zone. Shorting anything above it is less certain, but comes with more potential profit.

For EW fanatics, I like this jesse charts..

Happy trading! :-)
Comment: One doesn't raise price of something by 50% without intriguing the interest of sellers.

The buyers are no longer present. They came primarily from The DAO, the rest margin traders... those are all in long position. Fomoers are already long. And at this price, non-fomoers have no reason to enter a long position. Reason is that there is no new bullish indicator or resistance being triggered (2250-2300).

On the bright side, we are looking at bear divergences on many times frames (4h, 1h, 15m) and soon will be looking at red crosses on some indicators, like KDJ.

Possibly 2350 will not be visited again. Its first visit was due to fear, fomo, uncertainty and margin calls. And to fulfill Bull Flag. All is covered, I do not see a rational reason to go to 2350 again.

Opening more shorts now.

Happy trading! :)
Trade active: Trade is active.
1st Target: 2050.
2nd Target: 1800.
Comment: Entry: 2300.
Stop-loss ... soft: 2350, hard 2500.
Trade active: 9 hours later and price is 2180. 2350 was not retested. Probably never will be.

4h KDJ has confirmed the Bear Diveregence. Enter now for medium risk, medium profit.
For low profit, low risk, wait for MACD cross.

snapshot


Happy trading! :)
Trade active: Down, Down, Down to Goblin Town! https://youtu.be/1H-Cau8U2ho?t=50s

Trade should now be active for everyone. 4h MACD Bearish X kicked in.
snapshot
Comment: The little bullish trendline has been broken. Ghost feed is getting nicely filled, magnet is working. 1d cloud told the bulls to gtfo, we are back to bear trend!
With the violent 15k market sell wicks I do not recommend anyone to close the shorts.
Support to 2000 has decreased from 4500 btc 5 hours ago to just 1300 btc now. Bounces are not likely.
snapshot


Happy trading! :)
Comment: Quickie:
- RSI exited uptrend. P-SAR about to breakdown. KDJ matured, soon the bear-strength will kick in.
- It is likely we will follow the ghost feed.
- Bitcoin has gone up (as predicted). Prediction: Bitcoin strong market-structure, will go up more.
- Polo orderbooks have shifted a lot in the past 24hrs. From 10k+ bids yesterday, less than 6k bids remain today. From support of 4500 btc to 2000 this morning, less than 1000 btc remains in the evening.

From here aka 2100, it is 50/50 whether we bounce to 2200 and then down or whether we straight down. What I would look for is P-SAR confirmation. If it breaks down on this 4h candle, which is very possible, short it. Otherwise wait until it breaks down and then short. I have a strong short position already from 2300.
snapshot


P.S. Goblins want their meth Down Down Down to Goblin Town :)
Comment: Hi, our nightly update:
As predicted in our idea: 2050 was hit and then 2200 was hit for reshort. Nice profits are building.

4h is described in the chart. Bearish af.
snapshot


Daily: Those who want a stronger bearish confirmation must wait for Tenkan-sen to cross-over below Kijun-sen again. This will provide an extremely strong bearish confirmation. However, it will also be too late a signal for a potentially prosperous trade which is being developed now.

I am shorting anything above 2150. Have more limit orders at 2000 and also at 2250. Chance is only 50/50 that we visit 2150 from here (2070). The buy walls will soon wear-off and will be either dumped into or removed. Now is good time to build short position on any bounce. Also, if we break 2030, I am adding more.

Happy trading! :)
Trade active: We are back on track!

- 5 days of consolidation, longs started closing today. Poloniex available btc margin went from 1800 to 3200 in just 8 hours. Big players are going to short this.
- Dao hype is over. Yes, they locked away 2.5% of eth supply. It's nothing. SN owns 10% of bitcoin and it had no effect on price.

TA says DOWN TO GOBLIN TOWN. See chart
snapshot
Trade closed: target reached: Hi All!

We took profit first time 2 days ago at 1950, reshorted 2060. Believed it would still go more down.

Today we took profit here at 1940. AND we also went long. I believe there is bottom formed and we will visit the Elven Highwoods before resuming our path to Goblin Town!

Explanation in chart.

snapshot
Trade closed: target reached: Closing my last ETH longs here at 3250. For me there is too much uncertainty at this level for ETH and I have a better project going on.

1950 -> 3250 = 1300 pips profit.

Happy trading! ;)

P.S. I am moving onto MAID, already had most of capital there. Next ideas gonna be on MAID.
Yes agree but if 0.018 holds then we may need more sideways
+1 Reply
MarcelV PRO rexlomax
Sideways around trendline 1800-1900 is expected, yes. Once the high-TF candles close below the trendline, it is another strong short signal.
Reply
i wish i had the balls to short 0.023 good luck man
+1 Reply
captrade captrade
and hold it
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MarcelV PRO captrade
Thanks :) Usually the hardest trades are the most profitable trades.
+1 Reply
Well, I for one will not short here....the odds aren't in my favor. If this puppy can gain some more FOMO, I am looking at a possible entry at 2488. Dunno though. Like you suggest, the energy ain't quite right = stay the fuck away.
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MarcelV PRO MoonRally
That would be a really awesome entry, indeed. But my belief is we don't get there, since all etheists are long already or waiting for lower levels to re-entry after they closed here, at 2200+.
+1 Reply
Yeah, I doubt we get there on this wave, and if we do, there could be so much FOMO that it shoots to 2700 and hangs there for more than 10 sec.
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This seems like a pretty sound analysis to me. I was able to make some profit during this pump, and was pretty surprised by how long it kept going. Good call with DAO initiating the pump and shorters switching the position and fueling the fire.
Last attempt to pump seemed pretty week. Keeping the potential for more pumps open, but expecting to come down hard at some point for a very nice profit.
+2 Reply
MarcelV PRO phlogistax
Very true. Good analysis. And hopefully we are gonna go down with acceleration. The current behavior resembles 2900 price level to me. Keep up the good work! :)
Reply
shorting since .232
+1 Reply
MarcelV PRO Fractions
Excellent. Glad to hear my followers are in position with me!
+2 Reply
selfhigh05 PRO Zohaib_Malik
nice work, I am in MAID as well.
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I love your charts
+2 Reply
MarcelV PRO EWChartist
Thank you, sir!
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Revo EWChartist
Same here, really helps out with understanding it all. THanks
+2 Reply
You are welcome! :)
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closed short from .232 to .204 will enter again after minor bounce
+1 Reply
MarcelV PRO Fractions
yeah, for a prominent scalper, it's not bad idea to close on first target (2050) and then reshort higher. :)
Reply
It is amazing to see that eth is following the pattern predicted by you . Best TA !!
+2 Reply
MarcelV PRO VerthagOG
Thank you, sir! I no it's not bad, now let's not jinx it... ^^
+2 Reply
Very helpful analysis, keep up the good work!
+1 Reply
Thank you, sir!
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Are there any difference because The DAO is nearing 2 million sooner than you anticipated?
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MarcelV PRO cryptherium
Nope. 2 million out of 80 million = 2.5%. Today we found out SN is not Craig Wright. After reading this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1459687.100 I am convinced David Kleiman was SN. All facts are pointing towards that his 1.5 million coins = 15% are taken out of the supply. Yeah, just compare the two numbers ... if 15% doesn't move the market much, why should 2.5% move eth price by 50%? Explanation is simple: Price action was 80% short squeeze, 20% dao nao.
+1 Reply
thanks for the TA, any updates to this chart? seems to be going off path a bit.
+1 Reply
Lyops codydeeds
A little bit :D
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Irritated plebs scratching their heads about the ghost feed. I'm glad we stopped following it. Space for other players... "The wolf is fed, the lamb is alive." Patience is a virtue. We shill until the bull noise is filtered. Then Re-entry with twice the power.
+1 Reply
MarcelV PRO codydeeds
It's the Bull Noise. -> expected & also predicted. Never can know exactly when it happens, but its safe to anticipate some shakeout usually happens. Makes trading harder, but still profitable. Keep the shorts open! :)
+1 Reply
codydeeds MarcelV
I'm long from .0208 not sure how to short. Plan to ride it out until the dao is over. Have some buys set for .0211 and .0205
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MarcelV PRO codydeeds
I am very sorry to hear that.
+2 Reply
Cheers mate. Saw you on Poloniex troll box. Never lost faith and I'm starting to reel in the earnings. =) ttyl
+1 Reply
Cheers! :) Where there is sound analysis, results will always come once the "noise" is gone. ttyl (throw me a PM)
+1 Reply
You are my favorite. Finally have profits thanks to following your ideas. Is it possible to get in touch? I want private consulting :)
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Any target for the current long position? Thinking it might be a particularly strong bull run due to hype from Winklevoss exchange adding ETH tomorrow...
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Do you think it's gonna go down again before passing USD 10? Where should I go long?
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LOL @ Too much anticipation of buy pressure on ETH due to The DAO -> it will not sustain, forget figures such as 5 million ether. It will be max 2 million ether.

Current DAO update
988.09 M
DAO TOKENS CREATED

9.88 M
TOTAL ETH
99.40 M
USD EQUIVALENT
1.00
CURRENT RATE
ETH / 100 DAO TOKENS
19 hours
NEXT PRICE PHASE
13 days

about to reach $1 Billion!!!

Total ETH 9.88 Million! Do you see your figures are wayyyy off ! ??? (max 2 million)

NOTE to Viewers: Those who don't buy the DAO will regret this later on. PS I am all in :)
Reply
nasirkhalid007 nasirkhalid007
i meant $100 Million Not $1 Billion
sorry about that my mistake :P
still hundred million usd is not bad :)
Reply
Nice work, follow you on Eth now moving over to Maid.
Reply
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