VictorCobra

Welcome To ETH Season (ETH/BTC)

Long
POLONIEX:ETHBTC   Ethereum / Bitcoin
Back in the Summer of 2019, I made an effort to call the bottom in ETH/BTC . Here is the original analysis:
I also made a speculative analysis showing that I believed Ethereum could actually reach nearly half an entire Bitcoin in the next cycle. Although it didn't play out in the timeframe I was originally expecting, I suppose it's still possible, if it breaks the all-time high of 0.15. Even making it to 0.15 puts ETH at nearly $10k! So perhaps things can get much crazier than many are even expecting. I'm excited to see how things unfold.
Since 2019, I've been right about the ratio bottom. The fact that the ratio put in a long term higher low is significant, because it means that it can actually make a higher high, despite many people not believing this would be possible two years ago. On the weekly, you can also see that the ratio has held a long term uptrend (light blue), and has formed a bullish channel . Breaking out of the channel to the upside should cause a parabolic run for the ratio. The most bullish breakouts occur when price escapes an already existing uptrend.
Even heading to the top of the channel puts the ratio around 0. 05 , and that would be the first target here. With Bitcoin dominance finally breaking down, altcoins can regain control of the crypto market and vastly outperform Bitcoin for a time. The challenge here will be to decide when a good time would be to take some profit into Bitcoin and/or fiat. So let's see how this goes! I think it's possible we see Ethereum steal some thunder from the rest of the market for a little bit, meaning altcoin/ETH ratios would decline as well, but it should pull other coins up once it consolidates.

The ETH/USD chart is also extremely bullish , with price holding ABOVE a previously existing uptrend channel . As I said above, breaking and holding ABOVE and already established uptrend, is extremely bullish . I won't flip bearish unless it breaks back down into that channel. This may not happen until the current bull market is over.
As for the bearish scenario, I don't want to see ETH/BTC drop BELOW the channel support, as that could indicate the end of the uptrend, and potentially revisiting the lows from 2019.

This is not financial advice! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.

-Victor Cobra
Comment: I'm interested to see if ETH has its own run here, or if Litecoin, XLM, and some other large caps can keep the pace or even outperform. Still holding onto my LTC position, with the aim of increasing my ETH a bit, but if ETH really gets going, I may have to abandon the trade.
Comment: First target hit. Indeed, ETH has sucked some momentum from other cryptocurrencies, for the time being (including Bitcoin!). What happens here should tell us a lot about the market in the coming weeks. If it sustains a break above the channel, that would be very positive for altcoins. But a rejection can occur here if Bitcoin makes a large move in either direction. It alsomcan move up at the same time as Bitcoin, which may signal that we are near a major peak in the cycle.

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