Back in the Summer of 2019, I made an effort to call the bottom in ETH/BTC. Here is the original analysis:
I also made a speculative analysis showing that I believed Ethereum could actually reach nearly half an entire Bitcoin in the next cycle. Although it didn't play out in the timeframe I was originally expecting, I suppose it's still possible, if it breaks the all-time high of 0.15. Even making it to 0.15 puts ETH at nearly 10k! So perhaps things can get much crazier than many are even expecting. I'm excited to see how things unfold.
Since 2019, I've been right about the ratio bottom. The fact that the ratio put in a long term higher low is significant, because it means that it can actually make a higher high, despite many people not believing this would be possible two years ago. On the weekly, you can also see that the ratio has held a long term uptrend (light blue), and has formed a bullish channel. Breaking out of the channel to the upside should cause a parabolic run for the ratio. The most bullish breakouts occur when price escapes an already existing uptrend.
Even heading to the top of the channel puts the ratio around 0.05, and that would be the first target here. With Bitcoin dominance finally breaking down, altcoins can regain control of the crypto market and vastly outperform Bitcoin for a time. The challenge here will be to decide when a good time would be to take some profit into Bitcoin and/or fiat. So let's see how this goes! I think it's possible we see Ethereum steal some thunder from the rest of the market for a little bit, meaning altcoin/ETH ratios would decline as well, but it should pull other coins up once it consolidates.
The ETH/USD chart is also extremely bullish, with price holding ABOVE a previously existing uptrend channel. As I said above, breaking and holding ABOVE and already established uptrend, is extremely bullish. I won't flip bearish unless it breaks back down into that channel. This may not happen until the current bull market is over.
As for the bearish scenario, I don't want to see ETH/BTC drop BELOW the channel support, as that could indicate the end of the uptrend, and potentially revisiting the lows from 2019.
This is not financial advice! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
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I'm interested to see if ETH has its own run here, or if Litecoin, XLM, and some other large caps can keep the pace or even outperform. Still holding onto my LTC position, with the aim of increasing my ETH a bit, but if ETH really gets going, I may have to abandon the trade.
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First target hit. Indeed, ETH has sucked some momentum from other cryptocurrencies, for the time being (including Bitcoin!). What happens here should tell us a lot about the market in the coming weeks. If it sustains a break above the channel, that would be very positive for altcoins. But a rejection can occur here if Bitcoin makes a large move in either direction. It alsomcan move up at the same time as Bitcoin, which may signal that we are near a major peak in the cycle.
Well done sir! A long, slow climb up but steady. If it breaks downward likely to consolidate?
VictorCobra
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@MyDyingBride67, I think if it breaks downward, it can head to the bottom of the uptrend again, especially if Bitcoin decides to go on a run. So ETH would probably move sideways and consolidate in that case. A dump below the uptrend might signal the end to the crypto boom.
-Victor Cobra
abwaham
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I agree that the real difficulty will be deciding when to take profits. In 2017, well timed sells to btc or fiat could vastly accelerate gains. I was on the wrong side of these movements more than once though so I'm inclined to just hodl to market top (or as close as I can reasonably estimate it).
I must say, I had not fully considered the potential for the ratio to post a new high.
Tommy_bnks
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agreed
Cryptonetwork1
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mmmm 1 eth= 0.3 BTC? ...
VictorCobra
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@Cryptonetwork1, Fundamentally, many people would probably disagree, but the chart shows a long term higher low. If the trend continues, it can make a higher high, and 0.3 would be simply 2x from the previous all-time high. Bitcoin dominance is also still in a long term downtrend.