ETH/BTC: Expecting Another -17%

Hey everyone.
While info-channels keep churning out the same "alt season is coming" narrative — I'm looking at ETH/BTC and seeing the opposite picture. The pair trades at 0.02887, and my target is the 0.023 zone. That's 17–20% below current levels.

ETH/BTC is always cyclical
Everything that trades against Bitcoin moves in cycles. ETH is no exception. And every time the crowd calls "reversal" a couple of corrections too early. It worked in 2018, in 2022, and it's working now.

What the indicator shows
On the daily, my Liquidity Sweep currently shows:
— Trend: DOWNTREND
— Naked Levels: 9
— Active zones: 5 of 5
When you have 9 untested levels below — the market will go collect them. That's mechanics, not opinion.

Where the real liquidity sits
The 0.0230–0.0250 zone — that's where the stops and limit orders are stacked. Look at the volume profile on the right side of the chart: after 0.029, there's a liquidity vacuum almost down to 0.023. Price moves through vacuums like that impulsively, without pullbacks.
Key levels on the way down:
— 0.02886 — nearest support, already under pressure
— 0.02780–0.02820 — intermediate HTF zone
— 0.02300–0.02500 — primary target


Why the BTC rally was fake
BTC's move over the past weeks was a short squeeze, not organic buying. Open interest rose on shorts, funding was negative, and liquidations came in waves at every local high. When a rally is driven by shorts closing through liquidations — that's a release of pressure, not a trend.
You could observe the exact same setup on BTC itself: accumulation of short positions, and the rally happening precisely on their liquidation. After squeezes like this, the market almost always returns below the starting point.
ETH/BTC reflects this perfectly — while BTC was "rallying," ETH kept weakening against it. Rotation into alts is not starting.


ETH/USD: my limits are much lower
If we switch to ETH/USD — my accumulation limits sit below the April 2025 lows and below the February 2026 lows. Not at those levels — meaningfully below them.
Current dollar levels on ETH don't interest me. The revival of the past month is not bottom formation. Bottoms don't look like this.

What I need to see to flip my view
I'm not a stubborn bear, I'm ready to reverse my view — but on signals, not emotions. I'm waiting for a test of the 0.023–0.025 zone with a reversal candle on the weekly, funding back in positive territory for 2+ weeks, and confirmation from the alt index. None of these conditions are in place yet.

My position
I am not long ETH/BTC and won't open longs until the target zone is tested. On ETH/USD, my limits sit significantly lower. If the market doesn't reach them — then this opportunity isn't for me.
I'm not expecting a global reversal in the crypto market right now. The "reversal any moment now" narrative will keep ringing from every corner — until the real reversal actually happens. And it will happen when everyone gets tired of waiting for it.

Best regards, EXCAVO