ETH/BTC short term outlook, and possibilities thereafter
.015 has been a key level for ETH/BTC. While definitely a bullish sign to have broken through, it is meeting a good level of resistance now. Although of course it could just break straight through and continue on up to the 2.618 extension/descending trendline from the double top. But a trip back down to make former resistance support for such a strong area happens quite frequently.
Then going forward I have put out some what of a road map of possibilities. This is not a trade, but more of an outlook to look for one, or a set up. If we do come back into the triangle, there will likely be a strong move after some consolidation in there, regardless of direction. Watch for a break there, and stay tuned for some things that effect ETH. In my view, here are a few key factors:
1. The switch to POS (casper)...when will this happen? Will it happen smoothly? How will this new unproven technology function in its early days? POS is what Balaji S. has termed "an open technical question" ...I agree. Sure some alts have done it, but not at the level of value that ETH has.
2. What does the bitcoin market look like in the coming months, and the factors that are influencing it? If the bull market eventually continues, will that be due to a SOV/digital gold atmosphere that we have seen before? Will there be huge premiums for bitcoin on localbitcoins in certain countries with collapsing currencies, etc? In this atmosphere, IMO ETH/BTC should not do well. It has no cap in supply and admittedly does not strive to be digital gold or even money. Not to mention, who would want to use a crypto-currency that has not proven to be immutable/irreversible in this atmosphere?
Anyway, I digress. Alternatively, will be the situation with BU whining about high fees? Will segwit be adopted? etc. *If Casper does turn out to work well, and there is unfulfilled demand for some of those payment usecases, maybe that works out well for ETH.
3. ETH Classic--again a lot of this may depend on the success of Casper...but how will classic (Barry and DCG?) I think have recently put out there investment thesis. What are the use-cases that will drive demand for ETH? Can they be done on a cheaper ETH classic? etc.
4. How will other alts be doing, ETH was the most hyped thing since sliced break during its first bubble, lots of newbs entering the space thought it would replace bitcoin (lol). Now there may be some other alts doing well alongside it, how will LTC, XMR, DASH, Classic, ZEC be fairing? Just to name a few. We shall see.
Just things to watch for. No position here, just figured I would share my thinking--if it shoots straight through to the .025 then this roadmap is sort of off, but the issues I discussed are still what to look for in the future outlook of ETH over the next 6 months or so. Happy trading.
Then going forward I have put out some what of a road map of possibilities. This is not a trade, but more of an outlook to look for one, or a set up. If we do come back into the triangle, there will likely be a strong move after some consolidation in there, regardless of direction. Watch for a break there, and stay tuned for some things that effect ETH. In my view, here are a few key factors:
1. The switch to POS (casper)...when will this happen? Will it happen smoothly? How will this new unproven technology function in its early days? POS is what Balaji S. has termed "an open technical question" ...I agree. Sure some alts have done it, but not at the level of value that ETH has.
2. What does the bitcoin market look like in the coming months, and the factors that are influencing it? If the bull market eventually continues, will that be due to a SOV/digital gold atmosphere that we have seen before? Will there be huge premiums for bitcoin on localbitcoins in certain countries with collapsing currencies, etc? In this atmosphere, IMO ETH/BTC should not do well. It has no cap in supply and admittedly does not strive to be digital gold or even money. Not to mention, who would want to use a crypto-currency that has not proven to be immutable/irreversible in this atmosphere?
Anyway, I digress. Alternatively, will be the situation with BU whining about high fees? Will segwit be adopted? etc. *If Casper does turn out to work well, and there is unfulfilled demand for some of those payment usecases, maybe that works out well for ETH.
3. ETH Classic--again a lot of this may depend on the success of Casper...but how will classic (Barry and DCG?) I think have recently put out there investment thesis. What are the use-cases that will drive demand for ETH? Can they be done on a cheaper ETH classic? etc.
4. How will other alts be doing, ETH was the most hyped thing since sliced break during its first bubble, lots of newbs entering the space thought it would replace bitcoin (lol). Now there may be some other alts doing well alongside it, how will LTC, XMR, DASH, Classic, ZEC be fairing? Just to name a few. We shall see.
Just things to watch for. No position here, just figured I would share my thinking--if it shoots straight through to the .025 then this roadmap is sort of off, but the issues I discussed are still what to look for in the future outlook of ETH over the next 6 months or so. Happy trading.
Comment:
LOL, good thing this wasn't a trade