Looks like the recent 5-wave is complete. From here, this can resume the longer downtrend, or one more wave up to 0.026. While another wave up is possible, the general "feel" is that the downtrend is resuming and the top is in place. All the good news are out, everyone who wanted to buy has already bought. Regardless, will re-evaluate at .0185 area. A clear divergence can be seen, although I admit I am still new to it. Confidence: 8.5/10.
Comments
Andrew0
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I'm new too ;) did you consider in this analysis the DAO issue? I think will influence the market
BuyBitcoins
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Hello, new as in I've recently added divergence to my analysis. The dao is open information, so in a sense, its "priced in". EW theory does not take into account of FA for the most part.
Now onto my view of the dao. It is an interesting idea, first of its kind, could work out, might not. How it affects the price of eth? Demand is probably as high as it gets second to the ATH, maybe even more people are demanding eth now (more people now but the smart money distributed their holdings including the creator since ATH so the price is low in compared). With an approx 100million worth of eth, that is not hedged, it will be a problem later on. If they want to fund a project, they will need to convert the eth to usd. The dao might not, but the person or somewhere down the track, it will be converted to USD. Say Slockit wants 10million USD, now if you knew in advance thedao needs to sell 10million usd in eth, what do you think people will do with this knowledge? Combine this with a low demand and mining supply = falling price, as the price goes down more, thedao needs to sell even more eth to fund the same amount. As they sell more, and people know they need to sell more, eth could go quite low.