When markets rotate the money has to come from somewhere. Money can move in and out of one sector of the economy into the other, like money moving from industrials into technology or from fiat into precious metals. Money can also move around within a macro system from its constituent sub-systems. In the case of crypto, think we will see the Ethereum ecosystem beggared while money flows out of it into other ecosystems.
In order to try and stay ahead of the rotations into and out of crypto and into and out of the various layer one projects within crypto I turn to the best tool I have, which is the charts. Once we have the layer one blockchain we care about we can look at other layer projects that ride on top of the layer one to move up the risk curve for more volatility as we see fit.
ETH/Bitcoin Bitcoin is the biggest single slice of the crypto by fame and market cap. The double top threat is pretty clear at this point. The black double top appears to be an eve and eve with the difference between the first and second peak about 3.12% That is about as textbook as we could want to see. We just have to start breaking the neckline of the formation and we should start to see more volatility in the pair.
Eth Dominance ETH.D is likewise in a double top but this one is a bit further away from the neckline. The targeting is much the same. Due to the structures of the uptrend I think that 40% draw down is very reasonable and realistic.
XRPETH XRP appears to be in a ascending triangle against ETH with a target close to 2x if full performance is reached.
Solana/ETH Solana is suppose to be an Ethereum killer and in the long run I think it will live up to its name. I think it has a couple of years for the ecosystem to mature before It does. A major sign of strength will be if this W pattern performs to target. That would have Sol putting up over twice the gains than eth does in the initial stages of this move.
Polkadot ETH Dot has been moving sideway for the last 4 months and has created some bullish divergence on the weekly chart. I think we will see it slowly erode share out of eth.
Kadena Eth One of my favorite layer ones to watch and maybe trade before I see my long term set up is Kadena. It is poised ot have a W pattern that pops it over 100% against eth.
Cronos Eth Cro seems to be another coin in a wedge against eth. The target this cycle is over 300% away from the current level.
ADA ETH Oh, look, it is another coin in a bullish falling wedge against ETH. Sure reaching the previous ATH might take a decade or so, but that is a decade to favor ADA over eth.
Doge Meme Coin Versus Eth Want to consider something that at first glance seem moronic or hilarious? Doge has the structure to 70x eth over the next couple of years.
Final thoughts The Eth team has done a lot to make their system more affordable to use. As price goes down the ease of use goes up and the adoption goes up. Ethereum is in the process of turning itself into a volume trade and not a profit margin trade. That might be a good thing for cryptocurrency as a whole but I am chasing alpha. Crypto gives me more potential alpha than equities so I play here. If the alpha is leaving eth then I am going to leave as well, no matter how good it could be for the world or the ecosystem. Daddy can't pay for his girls food and clothes if he doesn't get that alpha.
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It seems we have had the monthly MACD cross I have been waiting so long for. Officially the long term trend has been sideways, and sideways is part of reversal.
Eth.d is looking just a bit better but I remain certain that MACD crossing zero is a very high probability scenario.
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Eth/BTC is minutes way from having its lowest daily close on about 180 days. That is pretty bad in itself. Even worse is that it is having its intra-week chart (the three day) close at its lowest level in 321 days. We dont see a long wick indicating people are buying this low.
This lower timeframe candle analysis backs up a dreary monthly chart. We still have about 10 days left in the month but as I have point out before the monthly MACD has crossed zero. The ADX D- is above the D+. We are on the verge of having price fall below a red ichimoku cloud with a bearish T-L cross.
Our long term indicators are very bearish. Hella bearish you might say if you spent too much time in Cali.
I still suspect this will have wide-spread implications for the Ethereum ecosystem as a whole with a lot of negative price action for Ethereum. I have stayed away from the ETH ecosystem and looked at projects on other layer 1 blockchains. I will continue to do so until some ethbtc downside targets are met.
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I continue to be dreary on ETHUSD and biased towards altcoins that look bullish against eth. The chart below shows what I see happening on ETH, which is a massive bull trap. The most logical place I could find this formation to fall is the rise of the purple W bottom. We are talking around $300 per eth.
This whole move is net neutral for crypto as a whole, just money moving around the crypto ecosystem.
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The technical situation ETHBTC faces continues to get increasingly bearish. The guassian channel has acted as resistance as price retests the neckline of the head and shoulders and the Stoch is poised to go "coast to coast" the same as it did in the 2019 ehtbtc bear market.
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Things continue to look awful for ETHTC. We still have 12 days to go before the close but on the monthly chart it seems pretty clear that the 50w SMA bas been effective as resistance. There has been a lot of wicks above it and now it seems the 10 and 50 are about to cross bearishly. The last time this happened was in 2018 and we had another year of ETHBTC bear market and over 60% decline.
The chat on ETHUSD continues to look absolutely awful. I know some people are quite bullish on ETH but at this point it is a dinosaur in crypto compared to the new evolutions.
We will see what the last 12 days of the month bring but I don't think it will negate what we see now.
Thanks for sharing your research👍 Also, you'll get $100 at the end of the month- check your DMs 👀
Halbstein
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I sincerely appreciate your sharing here. I can only do alpha for now. I discovered I had terminal bone marrow cancer (Myelofibrosis ) in 2021 at 65. My portfolio crashed , I went to cash and joined an investment that with SEC work and commitment to share holders in place; turned out to be a scam. I lost all but 140K of what my wife needs after I am gone. I am still working 20 hrs wk and doing crypto and a few stocks. Need all the insight I can get. Your ETH and SOL work very helpful here plus the double bottom charting . I am on Invest Answers Community and have their IADSS charting indicators that has Momentum, Mean Regression and Pivot combined . Thanks again. !
Highlander3K
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$300 per ETH. Not a hope in hell of that happening
This_Guhy
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@Highlander3K, ETH is now out of date technology. The only reason it will have any movements whatsoever is because of it's liquidity. But eventually it will be flipped by one of the eth killers. Almost ever pair/eth looks like it is going to benefit the alt. Hell, ETC looks like it will do better of the next couple of years than ETH. Unit bias is a real phenomenon With all the biases people have why would any normie buy ETH at 2250 when they can buy Eth Classic at 23? It is even branded as Classic. Cryto hipsters will be making a fortune buying vintage instead of buying ETH.
financialfreedomgoals101
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clean charting!
pouriyakhanzadeh
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Hi sir, if you want to invest in projects other than Ethereum blockchain, which one would you choose?
This_Guhy
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@pouriyakhanzadeh, have a lot of tokens I am watching for key retracements. There are all over the place. Right now I am watching for a significant pull back on Solana. When it comes to small caps I like Fantom (which I am in right now) and I am also looking for a pull back in aktusd. I have like 50 tokens on a short list and another 10 on my very short list that I watch so I can get in on a long term move.